- Pakistani and Indian PMs, who were sitting two seats apart, did not even look at each other
- Modi meets all SAARC leaders but Sharif
Even though they shared the dais, there was no exchange of courtesies between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi at the SAARC summit – leave alone a handshake.
Sharif and Modi, who were sitting two seats apart, did not even look at each other. Leaders of Maldives and Nepal were seated between them.
Though there was no “structured” meeting scheduled, a brief exchange of pleasantries was expected by many.
Modi also held two-way talks with every leader except Sharif, since neither was ready to make the first move to defuse tension.
The region’s first summit in three years follows some of the worst cross-border violence in the disputed region of Kashmir in a decade, and comes as NATO-led troops prepare to pull out of Afghanistan, intensifying the India-Pakistan rivalry for influence there.
It is also the first time the eight leaders are meeting for the first time since the election of a new government in New Delhi that is taking a more assertive stance on both China and Pakistan.
Modi held his first talks with Afghanistan’s new President Ashraf Ghani on the summit’s sidelines on Wednesday, as New Delhi seeks to develop its involvement in a country that Pakistan considers part of its sphere of influence.
Much of the attention has focused on whether the leaders of India and Pakistan will meet on the sidelines of the summit however, Sharif was reported as saying the ball was in India’s court after New Delhi cancelled talks earlier this year.
“After the recent snub from India, which cancelled foreign secretary-level talks, Pakistan is not going to take the initiative. It will depend whether Modi says he wants to meet,” Pakistani political analyst Talat Masood told a foreign news agency.
Hopes of a move towards reconciliation were raised when Modi invited Pakistan’s prime minister to his swearing-in ceremony, but his right-wing nationalist government has adopted a more aggressive policy on Pakistan than its centre-left predecessor.
Modi warned during the recent upsurge in violence in Kashmir that “times have changed and their old habits will not be tolerated”.
On Tuesday, Modi oversaw a $1 billion agreement to build a hydropower plant in neighbouring Nepal, where China has invested heavily in recent years, saying he wanted to “move forward” with deals long delayed by mutual mistrust.
But the mistrust between India and Pakistan – widely seen as the main obstacle to greater South Asian integration – is unlikely to be resolved so easily.
“SAARC’s main problem is that SAARC is basically about India and Pakistan, with the Afghanistan dimension thrown in now,” said Sujeev Shakya, chairperson of the Nepal Economic Forum.
Trade between the SAARC nations – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – has grown from under $140 million in 2008 to $878 million in 2012, according to SAARC figures.
But it still accounts for less than five per cent of the region’s total commerce, according to the Washington-based Brookings Institution. By contrast, trade between East Asian nations accounts for nearly 35 per cent of that region’s total.
Security is also likely to be discussed after al Qaeda announced a new South Asia branch and claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a Karachi naval yard.
Analysts said domestic political concerns would likely take precedence during the SAARC summit, with Modi eager to appear tough on Pakistan during local elections in Indian-administered Kashmir.
But there is little optimism that much will be achieved.
“It’s time to develop other regional groupings instead of getting bogged down by SAARC, where the conflict between India and Pakistan is a huge obstacle to progress,” said Shakya.
