The Nov 30 confrontation

Another test of N’s judgement

In many ways, not many things have changed since the dharnas took off in August. Nawaz Sharif is still prime minister, of course. Even the Model Town sword never really fell on the government, despite the Sharifs’ tendency for self-destruction. The army, too, kept focus on Zarb-e-Azb and talk of ‘third umpire’ went as quickly as it came. For all intents and purposes, the ruling party made enough right moves – keeping opposition parties in the House committed to ‘democracy’, for example – to ride out the storm.

Yet some things have changed. The government stays, but it has been de-fanged. The Go-Nawaz-Go momentum played no small part in the N-league losing some of its venom for the military. The Khawajas (Asif and Saad) are not so front-foot anymore. And since N had to go to Gen Sharif for ‘facilitation’, it was only a matter of time before the Musharraf case was more shut than open – referring to Akram Sheikh’s initial “It’s an open and shut case” dismissal.

Having to be bailed out by the opposition, particularly PPP, stung the Sharifs no less. Barely a year in government and the threats and abuse hurled at Zardari had to turn into a 50-dish SOS meal at Raiwind. And how Aitzaz rubbed it in, not just in the speech that ‘saved democracy’ but also the next day, when he lashed out at the interior minister.

Having to be bailed out by the opposition, particularly PPP, stung the Sharifs no less. Barely a year in government and the threats and abuse hurled at Zardari had to turn into a 50-dish SOS meal at Raiwind. And how Aitzaz rubbed it in, not just in the speech that ‘saved democracy’ but also the next day, when he lashed out at the interior minister

And the dharnas may have fizzled out, but the spin-off is no less potent. Imran stayed, but salvaged the momentum through massive jalsas, not just rubbishing the Sharifs across Punjab, but also taking it to the Peoples Party in Larkana. Qadri went, but announced taking his sit-in energy to elections – national and local – further complicating N’s electoral position, especially in Punjab.

And now there’s Nov30, with the usual sound effects. Imran promises to stay peaceful, yet also threatens paralysing the government. The ruling party acknowledges right to protest, but there will be red lines. Interestingly, if there is anything resembling consensus on what might happen, it is that the N team will shoot itself in the foot, again. It has quite a track record; from the day of the Model Town tragedy, to the Red Zone police action, to going back on the promise to Qadri regarding the JIT. So, if Imran just marches his hundreds of thousands to an agreed upon location, for peaceful ‘right to protest’, then that’ll be that. But if there is provocation, and ‘state apparatus’ is ‘employed’, then there’s no telling where things might go.

“In such situations the logical route is to diffuse the confrontation by offering compromise”, said Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi. “And the government has not been serious in its negotiations so far”.

While the government talked with both PTI and PAT during the dharnas, it did make a habit of going back on its word. Asad Umar and Shafqat Mahmood complained that the government’s team said one thing in the meetings and came back with different proposals in written format. Raheeq Abbasi experienced similar frustration.

“The JIT is a good example”, added Dr Rizvi. “The government did not keep its promise regarding its composition and it’s no wonder PAT is furious”.

Again, typical of N’s third stint so far. Once the heat was off the stiffness was back. Qadri folded the protest so the Sharifs opted for more pressure instead of easing out of the situation. The underlying assumption seems that being in power affords the extra muscle that proves the game changer in such situations. But N might be over estimating his staying power this time.

“If push comes to shove, the parliamentary support will go”, Rizvi pointed out. “The PPP will leave, so will MQM. And in the extreme case of bloodshed, the military can ask the PM to step down, even though a direct takeover is out of the question primarily because Pakistan is unmanageable”.

While the government talked with both PTI and PAT during the dharnas, it did make a habit of going back on its word. Asad Umar and Shafqat Mahmood complained that the government’s team said one thing in the meetings and came back with different proposals in written format. Raheeq Abbasi experienced similar frustration

Imran, of course, would aim for maximum pressure minus the bloodshed. That means, according to Rizvi at least, that by simply increasing pressure PTI can bring the N-league to a position where without a compromise, it will come in serious difficulties “within a month or so”. And chances of N proactively negotiating a sensible solution “are very slim”.

Yet Nov30 might not be the culmination point it’s being made out to be. There might be more calculation behind PTI’s toning down of the core demand than is being understood and the day may well pass without incident, though not before serving as a springboard for senate elections due in the spring.

“This will lead to feverish campaigning for senate elections in Feb”, said Salman Zaidi, deputy director at Jinnah Institute, Islamabad. Maybe Imran will resign the KP government, creating problems in the electoral college. And, of course, “there is also talk of elections around this time next year” which, if true, will be impacted by how political parties position now. And it’s pretty clear that the N-league is losing ground fast, PPP is still splintered following the ’13 rout, while Khan’s initiative is clearly threatening to snowball.

And, as we move from Nov30 to Feb-Mar, the impact of the changes that the dharnas were able to manage will become more pronounced. “You cannot take away the seriousness of issues Imran has thrown up, and how that is changing Pakistan”, added Zaidi.

“It’s not just Nawaz, it’s also PPP in Sindh. Issues like Tharparkar will no longer be brushed under the carpet. How governments perform will matter”.

In a nutshell, then, it’s either a rough Nov30 and a telling month ahead for N, or a peaceful rally followed by aggressive electioneering; N struggling in Punjab, PPP also gambling on fighting now than losing more support base, PAT muddying the waters with its vote bank, and PTI setting jalsa records across the country. There will either be a mid-term poll, or intense campaigning with no election in sight, because one party continues to reject results of the last vote.