India’s aggressive posturing

A small-aim, small-gain policy?

Recent aggression across the working boundary and LOC surprised many geo-political observers for its timings, intensity, focus and persistence. The question arises whether it is a cloud burst or a result of meticulously crafted planning supported by a validating script? Some events suggest that it is thematic and has international connivance. Could it be attributed to PM Modi’s UN/US visit, which has given him reckless over-confidence? A minute scrutiny of Modi’s psycho-political make up is in order to peep into his irrational behaviour. Modi, since coming to power, has continuously shown animosity and belligerence towards Pakistan. His apologists on both side of the border, who had described his electioneering war mongering as temporary vote catching tactics, are now hard put to explain his jingoistic policies.

Modi is displaying a complex and psychologically afflicted personality. Born and brought up in poverty, he carries a narrow focus on life, and intellectually limited, he bases him narrative on Hindu mythology. He is a diehard Hindu revivalist. Deprivation in early life forced him to ride the band wagon of Hindu chauvinism and callous dis-regard for other faiths. His ascent to power has heralded a new era of Hindu extremism supported by Hindu corporate sector, with damaging consequences for the secular India narrative.

Modi’s posture and bearing is haughty and dismissive of even his cabinet members, flushed with the feelings of strength and self-confidence characteristic of those humble mortals who, braving all odds, rise to the pinnacle of authority, defying the status quo. He has broken a socio-political sound barrier. His predecessors were generally well-educated, sauve, aristocratic or personally gifted achievers in the Gandhian mould. While they might have pursued their political and national agenda ruthlessly, they tried to maintain a soft socio-moral exterior. They did display due understanding of geo-political imperatives and generally avoided crossing red lines, an attribute so for missing in Modi and the BJP.

Pakistan’s geographical centrality to many economic zones in Asia both in east-west and north-south context having bearing on Indian ambition of establishing economic and trade spheres of influence cannot simply be ignored by India

Modi’s aggressive behaviour after a successful visit abroad, where he received deferential treatment from the US administration and powerful Hindu diaspora, shows his political immaturity. His meeting with the Israeli PM is ominous and pregnant with far reaching consequences for South Asia in particular. Modi, therefore, has upped the ante with Pakistan with vigour and determination. Troubling is not only PM Modi and his junta’s Hindutva ideology but their apparent inability or refusal to modify their myopic approach in regional and global context.

However, there is an inherent strategic contradiction in his military-driven initiative against Pakistan. If it is a matter of transient opportunism to take advantage of Pakistan’s political turmoil, its armed force’s operational occupation in North Waziristan, change of political guard in Afghanistan and drawdown of ISAF troops in Afghanistan, it is likely to dilute after a short while. But it seems to be flowing out of a long-term policy. Manifestly, aiming to achieve great economic development and global super status, India needs peace in the region especially with nuclear capable and militarily strong Pakistan. Indian economy, despite its tall claims, remains a satellite or client economy heavily dependent on FDI. If seriously threatened, more than sixty thousand foreigners present in India will dis-appear in a few days, avoiding endangering their lives and long-term investment projects, as happened in the culminating phase of the standoff between India and Pakistan in 2001. Foreign investment will not reside atop a military volcano. India should have learnt a lesson from China, which is carefully avoiding even a hint of military confrontation with other states in order to maintain a stable and peaceful environment for economic development. Tension and instability in the region does not suit India.

Pakistan’s geographical centrality to many economic zones in Asia both in east-west and north-south context having bearing on Indian ambition of establishing economic and trade spheres of influence cannot simply be ignored by India. It is, in a certain sense, a land locked state except for its opening on Indian Sea board. Its geography does not allow direct access to Central Asia, Western China and Western Asia through ancient land based trade routes. No ship borne trade can match the capacity of land based rail and vehicular trade volume of immense proportions. Can it be achieved by annoying and hurting Pakistan militarily? Modi, with his street smartness and cut throat pragmatic competitive nature, cannot miss this basic reality. His recently chosen path of souring relations with Pakistan can, therefore, only be described as self destructive and delusionary.

Within a few months of assuming power, Modi has veered on a ricochet on uncharted trajectory of military confrontation. If this behaviour is indicative of times to come, it will definitely upset India’s national objectives as well as vitiate the overall environment. Hence, it appears that Indian aggression aims at limited gains. Their narrative is based on the terror factor; a favourite global subject of concern. However this theme has basic flaws. Engaged in war against terror, having politically besieged leadership, afflicted by floods and governance issues, Pakistan could not logically be thinking of intense artillery duels with India. Also, it is India that is trying to force a change in IHK demography, alter IHK’s special political status and install a BJP government through manipulated elections. Hence, India is neither interested in UN observers’ impartial opinion nor UN’s involvement in cooling down military engagements on the LOC/international border.

Peace with Pakistan on an equal and honourable basis is an Indian compulsion. Resolution of core issue of Kashmir is key to harmony and stability in the region

Indian media and defence analysts have started hinting at the possibility of a limited war, like Kargil, as well as launching air strikes inside Pakistan against presumed terrorist training camps. Realistically, Indians have neither the nerves nor the capacity to venture into this kind of engagement. At best, it can be shrugged off as media hype for psychological and political gains. Unlike Kargil and Siachin, which lie across disputed and live LOC, a military violation across recognised borders will have very serious implications. Especially, use of air force in a punitive strike mode will take the heat to a very high notch on the ladder of escalation and will generate an immediate response. Pakistan’s armed forces remain fully operational to react with matching intensity. Indian air force will rue the day it ever violated Pakistan’s airspace. Their last experience of PAF capacity to defend its airspace was in 1965. Surely, their air force carries deep humiliating scars of their defeat by a numerically smaller airforce. The Indian political landscape dominated by Hindutva zealots, bigoted media and pipe dream defence establishment is likely to miscalculate about presumed operational space short of general war or threat of nuclear exchange. Such miscalculations will be fatal.

World powers, understanding the inherent danger to global peace, will intervene decisively within days to prevent war, hence Indian window of opportunity will be shut down firmly without any gains. It will be an act of fatal brinkmanship which Pakistan as well as the world at large will not tolerate.

Furthermore, due to ongoing political activism, the masses are already mobilised and fully charged. The political leadership of all hues and shades has unanimously condemned India’s aggressive posturing. Pakistan’s top military leadership is competent, courageous, motivated and combat tested. Indian aggression is going to solidify public opinion in Pakistan as all its anger is going to shift and focus on an external enemy.

Peace with Pakistan on an equal and honourable basis is an Indian compulsion. Resolution of core issue of Kashmir is key to harmony and stability in the region. India will have to face ground realities rather than forcing solutions of its choice. Standing at the cross-roads of history, Modi and the BJP have to rise above their aggressive nationalism. Is it a reaction to Nawaz Sharif’s speech at the UN? Is it Pakistan’s divided inner and political front which is inviting trouble? Are they now following a coercive policy of limited aims and limited gains? Or are they creating a situation of long term siege and interference in Pakistan’s internal matters? Or is it part of a bigger plan in concert with certain regional and global powers inimical to Pakistan’s security and development? Only the time will tell. However, Pakistan has to develop an integrated and multi-layered response to adequately face all possible eventualities.