Russia back to old ways

Although nowhere near the Cold War, the Ukraine crisis has put the demarcation of East and West in effect again

In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, the dynamics of the world are also shifting, though slightly, back to the bloc system. The West and Russia have once against ended up in opposing camps. Time may have reduced power Russia’s might but, as it appears to be, it has failed to tame it. The Ukraine crisis, though strictly an internal conflict, turned into an international hotspot when Russia started supporting the rebels and with the USA and the West on the other side.

Russia has vehemently denied its involvement in this issue from the very start but the evidence points otherwise. The annexation of Crimea by Russia was a violation of international law that put Russia in hot waters and further aggravated the West. Moreover, the presence of Russian troops and ammunition has been repeatedly proven. Russia is meddling seriously with the peace the EU has been trying to maintain in the European continent and although Russia is facing strict sanctions as well as criticism at international forums, it refuses to back out and is thus is at odds with the West.

Russia is supporting the rebels diplomatically as it helped them with the conduct of controversial elections. It not only facilitated the conduct of elections but also endorsed it. While the West slammed the elections as being ‘sham’ and imposed strict economic sanctions on Eastern Ukraine to dampen their spirits, but judging from the current state of crisis the issue is not nearing its solution.

The only breakthrough that was acclaimed and hailed was the Minsk talks of September 5 in which Ukraine and rebels agreed to end the armed confrontation that has taken many lives. The fact that Russia, accused by the West as a disturber of peace, laid the foundation of the 14-point deal was a welcome change. But unfortunately the peace deal is violated on a daily basis by both sides and the conflict continues to be violent.

Russia, the facilitator of the agreement, itself is alleged to be breaching it. The Russian military groups and ammo are repeatedly sighted in Eastern Ukraine. In the light of very recent developments, NATO has warned Russia again to withdraw its military from the shared border and also from inside the territory of Eastern Ukraine. They have intercepted ‘very serious’ buildup of Russian sophisticated equipment and military. Real warfare remains the fear in Ukraine where the West alleges that Russia is aiding and abetting rebels in the former Soviet satellite’s east. Russia on the other hand blames the West to have turned blind eye against the heavy weaponry used by Ukraine even in residential part of the rebel-held areas. Putin, while in a German television show, expressed the fear that Ukraine could go to ethnic cleansing and it was their right to stop it.

Ukraine is cutting a sorry state of affairs in this whole crisis. The bloody political revolution-cum-independent movement has strained the country’s economy. More than 4,000 lives have been lost and although the state seems resilient in the face of continuing tragic situation, it is taking a heavy toll on it. Ukraine is turning more towards the West. Although not a member of EU or NATO, it heavily depends on the West’s support to counter Russia’s involvement in its backyard.

Though the West is united and has the ‘buttressing factor’ of NATO and USA support, their sanctions are not helping much. The sanctions that are imposed on Russia are hitting them where it hurts the most: the trade of natural resources. But it is a double edged sword. That is why it ended up hurting some of the western states too like Poland which lost its biggest apple market. Similarly Russia has also responded with sanctions against the food industry of Europe.

The friction of the West towards Russia was evident in Australia where Putin was highly criticised at the G20 summit, with countries like Japan, Australia and US issuing statement to condemn Russia over its involvement in Ukraine. Some speculate that the early return of Russian President Vladimir Putin from the summit was because of the cold shoulder he received from other states. But Russian media painted Putin as hero as he was able to ‘face the hostility and stand on Russia’s stance over issues of national interest’.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, viewing the summit as a window of opportunity, held long talks with Putin regarding the Ukraine crisis. She was quoted as saying: “It is important to take advantage of every opportunity to talk.” It can be viewed as a welcoming step since it is the first time that any western country’s minister is visiting Moscow, after the deep rift caused by the Ukraine conflict. Although Russia was open to talks but played down any chance of the talks being fruitful and ruling out possibility of breakthrough regarding the crisis.

This conflict is the highest level of confrontation between the West bloc and Russia after the end of Cold War. Till now the West bloc seems unable to contain the hostility of Moscow and the economic sanctions it has imposed don’t seem to be working. Russia has shrugged off them, showing that it no longer feels obliged to the West. But on the other hand the international reputation of Russia is plundering down ever since it got involved in Ukraine and the sanctions will hit them hard though they may not show. British Prime Minister David Cameron said the West would maintain its campaign of sanctions for years if need be, because the alternative was allowing the Ukraine crisis to develop into ‘some permanent frozen conflict on the continent of Europe’.

Russia is trying to fight off the increasing influence of the West in its neighbourhood by supporting the rebels. It is indirectly resisting the West, just like old times. On the other hand, Russian neighbours are threatened by the aggressive actions of Russia and are therefore looking up to the West for help. The outcome of this issue can become a decisive factor for the future of Russia. It is an emerging power but assessing the situation it seems that Russia misses ‘being influential player’ in the political arena of the world and is trying to reclaim its position. Although nowhere near the Cold War, the crisis has put the demarcation of East and West in effect again.