After their capital performance in Canberra, Australia have the chance to wrap up a series win on Friday. They should relish the chance to do so at the MCG, where the World Cup final will be held in just over four months. Both Australia and South Africa will dream of being part of that decider on March 29 and it is not out of the question that they could meet each other there. That makes this game a mini dress-rehearsal; Australia can secure a trophy with victory on Friday, South Africa must avoid defeat to keep the contest alive.
It has been notable that in all three matches so far, Australia have batted first. Twice that resulted in 300-plus totals that downed the South Africans, and once in a Perth collapse that cost them the game. Should AB de Villiers win the toss in Melbourne, he might be inclined to bat and put Australia under the pressure of chasing. Only one of the past five ODIs at the MCG has been won by the team batting second.
Both sides are also working out some kinks in their line-ups. South Africa’s balance has looked askew in the absence of the injured JP Duminy, and they must decide whether they can afford to rely on part-timers Farhaan Behardien and de Villiers for 10 overs again, or strengthen their attack. Australia shortened their batting line-up by axing Glenn Maxwell in Canberra and it did not cost them, though their susceptibility to occasional batting collapses means it is always difficult to predict how many they will make.
Form guide
(last five completed games, most recent first)
Australia WLWWW
South Africa LWLWW
In the spotlight
There has been plenty of talk about Mitchell Johnson over the past year, but his namesake Mitchell Starc might just be looming as one of the key men for Australia at the World Cup. He collected four wickets in Australia’s win in Canberra and notably was getting the ball to reverse-swing. Starc’s ODI record is strong but at home it is especially so – in 14 games in Australia he has taken 27 wickets at 17.03, including two four-fors and two five-wicket hauls. His past four ODIs at home have brought him 15 wickets for 134.
AB de Villiers is the No.1-ranked ODI batsman in the world, but has insisted on batting himself at No.5 in this series. His scores of 80, 48 and 52 confirm he is in strong form but a move one place up the order might benefit South Africa. Whatever the case, the Australians know he and Hashim Amla are the prize wickets; in 22 ODIs against Australia de Villiers averages 61, and this calendar year he has made 379 runs at 94.75 against them.
Team news
The success of the side in Canberra might mean few changes for the Melbourne game, although the selectors might be keen to see how Pat Cummins performs in a 50-over contest. The axing of Glenn Maxwell for the third ODI altered Australia’s balance and it remains to be seen whether they will want to bring him back in at his home venue. He could slot back in to replace Mitchell Marsh, who has been released from the squad ahead of his Sheffield Shield return next week.
Australia (possible) 1 Aaron Finch, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane Watson, 4 Steven Smith, 5 George Bailey (capt), 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Matthew Wade (wk), 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Kane Richardson/Pat Cummins, 10 Xavier Doherty, 11 Josh Hazlewood.
Imran Tahir sprained his knee during the Canberra match and is in doubt for the fourth game. Robin Peterson is the other spinner in the squad and could be in line for his first one-day international appearance in more than a year. A handy batsman with six first-class centuries to his name, Peterson’s inclusion might allow South Africa to alter their balance by including a fourth fast bowler. Kyle Abbott could come in for either Farhaan Behardien or Rilee Rossouw, and Peterson could come in at No.7.
South Africa (possible) 1 Hashim Amla, 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Faf du Plessis, 4 Rilee Rossouw/Farhaan Behardien, 5 AB de Villiers (capt), 6 David Miller, 7 Robin Peterson, 8 Vernon Philander, 9 Kyle Abbott, 10 Dale Steyn, 11 Morne Morkel.
Pitch and conditions
The drop-in pitches at the MCG can be good for batting, but South Africa struggled in the T20 a fortnight ago and managed only 101 from their 20 overs batting first. The forecast for Friday is for a possible shower in the morning, but the rain should have cleared by game time. The top temperature is forecast to be 25C.
Stats and trivia
South Africa have played only one ODI at the MCG in the past 12 years; they won it, chasing 272 in January 2009
Hashim Amla scored his 17th ODI hundred in Canberra and has the remarkable record of averaging a ton every 5.9 games, easily the best such ratio of anyone with at least five ODI centuries
Amla needs 90 more runs to reach 5000 in ODIs and is easily on track to be the fastest to the mark; he has played 98 innings and the quickest to 5000 have been Virat Kohli and Viv Richards, both in 114 innings
Quotes
“We had a great first ODI, then a very poor one. Then we’ve had a great one again. Consistency is what we’re about and that’s what we’re really striving for, moving into an ODI World Cup in the next couple of months.”
Aaron Finch wants Australia to eliminate their slumps