And sense of priorities
The Pak-India arms race is a matter of concern in the best of times. But considering how the present escalation is taking place in the wake of serious LoC and working boundary violations, it seems the feel-good factor of some months ago – when even Modi postured for peace, briefly – has definitely transformed into an old fashioned stare-down confrontation. India has conveyed its new sense of priorities to its friends in China as well. For the immediate future, at least, the focus will be on painting India as immensely powerful, and how it now holds a prominent position on the international stage.
There must be a more thorough reflection in Islamabad, though. The BJP’s chest-thumping, despite initial talk of friendly ties, was not entirely unexpected, especially for Pakistani audiences. Therefore, there must be a comprehensive debate about the need to respond, in kind, every time New Delhi ups the ante. Already both countries have delivery systems, capable of carrying nuclear and conventional loads, that cover practically the length and breadth of the traditional rival. Perhaps it is time, at least till the present government plays out its hard-line policy to win whatever brownie points it is banking on from the public, to shed the old reflex-action approach.
No doubt political and military circles in both countries know that one of the abiding lessons of the 20th century was that arms races do not necessarily make countries stronger; sometimes they hollow them out economically. A central piece of US Cold War strategy, especially since the Regan days, was to milk the Soviet Union by forcing an unaffordable arms race on Moscow. Besides, both Pakistan and India have far more serious issues to turn to. Together, they make for one of the world’s largest concentration of people living in absolute poverty. Surely both governments will more points from respective populations if they divert resources presently consumed in missile tests to poverty alleviation, or to their health and education sectors. To be fair, Sharif has clearly tried harder, and more sincerely, for peace. Modi must understand that no matter how carefully choreographed his belligerence, there is a point beyond which the protagonist cannot control the narrative, and is himself forced into reaction.