‘The fight will go on’
And domestic priorities will dictate foreign policy
What does the PTI really hope to achieve from its new Supreme Court initiative? Sure, the dharna has gone stale, especially after Qadri’s departure, so there is a need for suitable compromise. But the jalsas are doing a fine job of regaining lost momentum. And, more importantly, since the Supreme Court demand again calls for a probe which will end with the prime minister’s resignation – at least if it satisfies PTI’s standards of legitimacy – the N league will obviously resist it. What, then, will Shah Mahmood and Asad Umar discuss with Ishaq Dar, now that both parties are willing ‘to talk’ again?
We talked to Shafqat Mahmood, one of PTI’s more trusted ‘senior leaders’, whose experience in the bureaucracy and politics provides valuable insight to the party’s think-tank, especially in politically turbulent times like the present.
“This is an extension of the negotiations that have already taken place”, he said. “We agreed on a number of points during the last round (of negotiations)”.
That would counter claims that the PTI is wriggling for space, and pointing to the Supreme Court again to find a way out of the sit-in. Apparently, when they last talked, the government and PTI not only agreed to the formation of a judicial commission to probe election irregularities, but also on a 45-day deadline. There was also agreement on a special investigation team to assist the Commission.
Now this complicates PTI’s position on the timing issue. Previously, party leaders expressed frustration that the government’s team would agree to timelines during talks, but leave the matter open ended in their written proposals. But Shafqat Mahmood indicates, “to the best of my knowledge”, that this issue, too, was resolved.
“The main issue was disagreement with regard to terms of reference”, he added. “Broadly speaking, they were willing to look into some of our concerns, but we clearly expressed reservations with the ‘health’ of the election. We demanded re-examination of the entire record”.
And that, it turns out, is where the deadlock appeared. “They” said the final proposal needed the prime minister’s go-ahead, so “we” waited for we-will-get-back-to-you to materialise. But instead the government began snap arrests of PTI workers. “Thousands of our workers were arrested”, Mahmood complained. “In such circumstances, there was no point of going ahead with negotiations”.
The resignation project may have been a non-starter, but the dharna route has definitely caused some commotion in the political scene. Now that the government is secure, news reports are beginning to come out of how insecure some ministers really got at the peak of the protest
But what is different this time? Why, again, would the government now bend to a process what will inevitably result in its disqualification?
“Well, we have indicated our willingness once again”, he answered. “If they still don’t reciprocate, our fight will go on”.
Mid-term elections?
The resignation project may have been a non-starter, but the dharna route has definitely caused some commotion in the political scene. Now that the government is secure, news reports are beginning to come out of how insecure some ministers really got at the peak of the protest. If you’ll trust some controversial talk-show hosts, some senior ministers even ‘disappeared momentarily’, and removed ministry files from their residences.
And the Peoples Party’s posturing is speaking volumes. First it came out in support of Nawaz Sharif, even if it meant, much to its distaste, that the prime minister would end up personifying democracy. But when Imran Khan took to jalsas, and Punjab seemed once again rallying to PTI’s call, PPP could not delay reorganising in Punjab any longer, whatever its position on the current crisis. That, of course, meant finally catapulting Bilawal to the top, which has come with its own political spillover, at home and across the border.
And the resulting cross-party show of political force means either the longest election campaign in the country’s history, or something is cooking; something that means elections sooner than the present cycle completes.
So are mid-term elections really likely? Or is this just prolonged posturing?
“I don’t see mid-term elections to be honest”, he said quickly. “Theirs is a policy of muk-muka, neither will upset the other’s boat”.
They can do without the uncertainties of another election, according to Mahmood. Zardari is sitting comfortable with Sindh in the bag. Why risk losing more ground before there is an opportunity to consolidate? There are, however, differences within the party regarding the PPP playing the N league’s B team to save the government. This has obviously caused internal problems. The Sindhi faction is doing fine, but there are reservations in Punjab.
Blowback?
Inter-party differences are part and parcel of politics. And whatever novelties PTI has introduced will take some time to play out and be understood completely. But certain issues cause even Pakistan’s bickering factions to unite. And there may have been differences leading to the North Waziristan operation, but there has been no disagreement since. The focus now is on wiping out terrorists “of all hues and colours”.
Just like the TTP, India’s belligerence has also been known to unite the internal political landscape. And PTI has been very vocal about local politics, but its position on most foreign policy issues is still vague
Lately, though, signs of blowback have begun increasing. The Wagah incident, especially, has raised the stakes. And reports that the Punjab government was warned in advance, yet was unable to offset the attack, have once again drawn accusations of incompetence.
“Of course, blowback was expected to an extent”, Mahmood explained. “And it was natural for it to take some time, since militants were dislocated by the operation”.
But it is very important now, he added, to conduct a very detailed internal inquiry. The quality and credibility of the intelligence needs to be studied. How specific was it, for example?
“It’s difficult to say precisely if we are witnessing blowback, at least in the way we were made to expect, but it is surely a form of reprisal attack. Therefore relevant agencies need to ensure such sensitive intelligence traffic is accorded more importance in future”, he added.
Just like the TTP, India’s belligerence has also been known to unite the internal political landscape. And PTI has been very vocal about local politics, but its position on most foreign policy issues is still vague. What does it make of the recent, and in ways unprecedented (Hurriyat meetings), escalation with the eastern neighbour, the traditional rival?
“Our foreign policy will be determined by domestic priorities”, he said. “The prime focus will always be on people’s welfare. Our priority is the grass-root, from where we will empower different layers of society. And whatever alliance or posturing suits the needs of the people will be adopted”.
With India, PTI believes dealing with the core issue of Kashmir is essential to normalise the relationship. That does not mean that all contact should be cut off till Kashmir is on the table, of course.
“We must continue to talk on important matters, not just with India but all neighbours, especially now when relations with some are tense”, he said. “But both countries should understand that Kashmir will need to be solved, and both also know that it is time that they turned their energies to containing poverty, which is the biggest problem in both countries”.
It may be some time, though, before the PTI is made to seriously hash out a foreign policy. For now it remains stuck in a political impasse largely of its own making. And, as Shafqat Mahmood said at the beginning, if the government does not accept the SC initiative the “fight will go on”, it seems the dharna may have yet more life left in it, even if its chances of getting the PM to resign are not getting any brighter.
