Foreign news outfits term polls as ‘election about nothing’ while Republicans say elections are about ‘everything’
Opinion polls put President Obama’s public ratings in 40s, suggest Republicans faring better at grabbing Senate majority
Anxiety over a string of challenges – ranging from partisan politics in Washington to another open-ended conflict in the Middle East to Ebola fears – and not optimism for improved political performance underpins the American public mood ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, which will ultimately be decided by local voters in each state.
Republicans, who have controlled the House of Representatives since 2010, appear to be faring better than Democrats in wresting a majority in the Senate as well, according to opinion polls on the eve of the election.
ABOUT NOTHING OR EVERYTHING?
The poll is also being termed invariably in the mainstream press including The Washington Post and The New York Times as a “Seinfeld Election,” and “an election about nothing.”
Analysts say such observations stem from a combination of several factors including voters’ discontent with the performance of Democrats and a traditional lack of interest in the midterm elections, as well as an absence of a clear-cut Republican agenda of priorities.
But Republicans, sensing the public mood, stress that the “election is about everything,” and take a swipe at performance of the Democratic administration on internal and international issues, including jobs and national security. Polls reveal that despite some upbeat economic figures, President Obama’s public ratings remain in 40s.
In addition to all 435 House of Representative seats, 36 Senate seats and 36 governorships are up for grabs.
Yet analyses on political gridlock suggest that voters do not regard any party performing highly, after years of dysfunctional partisanship in the US capital that has blunted progress on national issues including immigration reform, and polarised the nation on other issues, like healthcare, along party lines.
At the same time, Republicans stress that midterm polls will be a referendum on President Barack Obama’s performance on an array of domestic and international ‘mistakes’ including the latest tenuous and precarious fight against the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria.
The possibility of a Republican control of Capitol Hill with a Democratic president into sixth year at the White House has prompted some critics to view the outcome of the election as being inconsequential since a major change on national issues could not be expected until the next presidential election in 2016.
WHO’LL GET MINORITIES’ VOTES?
As for the minorities, the urban-rural divide and demographic complexion that define US politics, is likely to be again on display with Democrats assured of solid performances in major cities and Republicans consolidating their gains in the Whites-dominated areas. An overwhelming majority of African-Americans, Muslims, Asians and Latinos live in major cosmopolitan centers like the East Coast that includes New York and adjacent states, Washington metro area and the West Coast, particularly California.
While Republicans are confident that the Latino vote would not make much of a difference in their calculations for control of both houses on the Capitol Hill from Tuesday’s election, the Democrats could see a slide in voting trend, if the minorities do not turn up in large numbers on account of their disaffection with the delay in immigration reforms and deportation issues.
RACE FOR SENATE:
The House of Representatives seem to be going the GOP way, and it is the Senate races that hold out some prospects for suspense, depending on the voters’ turnout, particularly those still undecided.
In order to secure a majority in the Senate, the Republicans need to win six seats. Citing latest forecast, both The Washington Post and The New York Times reported odds favoring the GOP. Republicans are poised to take four seats held by Democrats — in Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.Conversely, Republican-held seats in Georgia, Kansas and Kentucky – remain close.
According to the Times, the other Senate races that will likely determine the balance of power are in purple states currently held by Democrats – Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
EFFECT ON FOREIGN POLICY:
In terms of US foreign policy in the last two years of Obama presidency, it is the White House, which will continue to lead and make decisions on hot button issues including the fight against IS, Afghanistan, implications of the unrest in the broader Middle East, Ukraine, relations with Russia and China.
Yet a Republican-controlled Senate will mean the total GOP hold on Congress and the strings of the financial purse. Obama will need the Capitol Hill approval for any new major assistance and security programs in the conflict situations, and with long-term allies. The GOP approach will be determined by domestic and international considerations that may ultimately dictate the outcome of 2016 presidential election.
