Statesmanship or brinkmanship?

Modi should take a leaf out of Gandhi’s book

What is unravelling in the Indo-Pakistan relationship is hardly new or surprising. It is, in many ways, as predictable as the sequence of events that precede the climax of a Bollywood movie. India and Prime Minister Modi have, this time, upped the ante. While campaigning for becoming India’s prime minister, he had taken a tough stand on Pakistan and the latest hostilities have already paid rich dividends as the BJP has triumphed in style by ousting Congress led governments in Maharashtra and Haryana. These states remained the bastions of Congress for years and clashes on the working boundary, along with an increase in rhetoric, have been a catalyst in the BJP’s win as much as Congress’ abysmal record of governance and downward spiral that continues since the last general elections.

The latest deterioration in relations is something which one can expect to continue for the foreseeable future. It has now come to be in many ways a standard operating procedure in the BJP’s governance manual to navigate ties with Pakistan in a manner to gain an illusionary political ascent. This trend is not always inimical but is shaped by India’s internal and external dynamics and exigencies. Thus, we had the nuclear explosions under the Vajpayee government in 1998, followed by the Lahore visit, to exerting tremendous pressure on Pakistan after 9/11 attacks, the Agra summit, amassing troops on the international borders and finally the visit of Prime Minister Vajpayee to Islamabad in 2004. The present worsening of relations has more to do with India’s internal situation and the prime minister’s attempt to solidify his power.

For Pakistan and Sharif, to take the initiative of travelling to India personally for Modi’s swearing in ceremony, shunning the Hurriyat leadership was a giant stride taken a bit too early

All this has been bad news for Pakistan and its embattled prime minister, Nawaz Sharif. While campaigning for elections last year, Sharif had made it clear that normalisation of relations with India is going to be a major plank of his foreign policy outlook. To give him credit, he did indeed take an extremely bold initiative by visiting India at the swearing in ceremony of Prime Minister Modi. This was not easy since he has been in a difficult relationship with the country’s ‘establishment’, yet Sharif showed remarkable courage. His overtures to peace with India, already unpopular within the most influential quarters, have now met a dead end and for all practical purposes are over for the time being. The shift in Sharif’s and Pakistan’s stand at the United Nations is a clear manifestation of this policy stance. The sit-in and protests against his government over claims of election fraud and rigging have weakened him further and narrowed his space for such initiatives in foreign or even internal policy making.

All this does not auger well for the neighbours, or the region. The Indian government should have shown greater understanding of Sharif’s position at home and strengthened a democratic government if it were to behave like the world’s largest democracy; sadly it did not. India has also shown repeatedly its lack of interest in reviving the composite dialogue with Pakistan and has been resorting to juvenile excuses to delay or postpone the peace process. It has also, under the present administration, made it clear that it shall pursue an aggressive approach in border issues with neighbours, be it China or Pakistan. It is said that the architect of the current Indian policy, its legendary spy master, Ajit Doval, presently the national security advisor, also envisages operations within Pakistani territory against elements that India considers threats to its national security and the so called abettors of terrorism on Indian soil.

For Pakistan and Sharif, to take the initiative of travelling to India personally for Modi’s swearing in ceremony, shunning the Hurriyat leadership was a giant stride taken a bit too early. Certainly, the sour meeting between the two leaders and Sharif’s press meet before his departure drove home that point. If anything was left to doubt, India’s decision of cancelling foreign secretary level talks on the pretext of the Pakistani High Commissioner’s meeting with the Hurriyat leadership, its public displeasure over Pakistan raising the Kashmir issue at the United Nations and references to Pakistan in the Joint Communiqué between the Indian and US leaders sealed that point. Pakistan should have opted for a lower level representation, preferably, at the foreign minister level and should have most certainly met with the Kashmiri leadership. It does not need to change its stated position and travel extra miles when the other party is not interested in talks but is willingly raising temperatures.

On winning the state elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, Amit Shah, a close confidant of PM Modi and the head of the BJP, proclaimed that “With these victories, Modi has become the undisputed leader of India”

Pakistan must also prepare well to handle the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan, serious tensions on the Iranian border, Iran’s intransigence and increasing cooperation with India, the Shi’a-Sunni fault lines in the west’s war against IS, a new government in Kabul, the success of Operation Zarb e Azb and the continuous political turmoil are some of the most serious challenges to Pakistan with grievous consequences.

India and Pakistan must work together to attain peace which we now owe to our poor and downtrodden masses. We must eschew our differences and take the path of sustained meaningful talks to resolve all outstanding issues, be it Kashmir or terrorism. Only then can both countries realise their true potential. The most important characteristic for such an outcome has to be the display of statesmanship, rather than brinkmanship. Such pragmatic leadership was last seen in the person of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Indira Gandhi.

On winning the state elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, Amit Shah, a close confidant of PM Modi and the head of the BJP, proclaimed that “With these victories, Modi has become the undisputed leader of India.” Bhutto and Indira Gandhi, too, far eminent statespersons and leaders were, in real terms, the undisputed leaders of their countries, but we all know that undisputed leaders like Bhutto and Gandhi did have to pay the ultimate price in the end. Modi may do well to take a leaf from their life and the history of the Subcontinent.