More than meets the eye
The real question surrounding the PTI resignations deadlock is what the government considers the lesser evil from among its few choices. If both PTI and Speaker Ayaz Sadiq’s positions were the last word, there would be no possibility of progress. Yet the deadlock might persist a while. They could accept the resignations. But that would give the PTI just what it is looking for at this time – an all-out fight. And wouldn’t that swing the pendulum further? Already the jalsas have salvaged some momentum that was wasted in the dharna, and after the resignations they would have little on their to-do list but agitate till they tip the government.
It would also throw open the by-election scenario, giving yet more to the government to think about, especially with PAT announcing its participation. But that does not seem quite appetising for the government; hence the standstill. It does seem, though, that it is lending an ear to some of the jirga’s suggestions, and Siraj ul Haq’s warnings about the resignations did not exactly disappear in thin air, even if so far there is only stalling, not a rejection. Yet with the ECP ruling out its role, the ball is fairly in the government’s court.
Reports of conflicts within the PTI further complicate the situation. It seems the party leadership might have been unable to convince all members why national assembly seats must go, but the provincial assembly can continue to function. Of late, such examples have exposed a soft underbelly of sorts of the PTI. If Shah Mahmood’s letter – which the speaker apparently quoted from on Wednesday – really stated that it “will be up to the national assembly speaker whether to listen to the MNAs one by one or collectively”, there will be some political throwback, even if such back-and-forth has little legal meaning. While deciding the government will no doubt weigh how most political litmus tests – like the Multan by-election – indicate it is losing ground. Should it take the bull by the horns and go for more indicators, or take the back foot in negotiations and concede political ground in another way? What it thinks will hurt less will decide the fate of the resignations.
