While several meteorologists are certain Nilofar will not hit Pakistan directly, they believe some parts of Balochistan and lower Sindh will be in storm’s periphery
With the tropical Cyclone Nilofar only 500km away from the coastline of Pakistan, six fishing trawlers are said to be missing in the deep sea of Gaddani.
Meanwhile, Chief Meteorologist Tausif Alam said that Cyclone Nilofar has moved towards north-east. He added that the next eight hours would determine whether the cyclone will move towards Pakistan or India.
It would continue to move in the same direction (towards adjoining coastal areas of lower Sindh and Indian Gujrat) with a speed of 14 km/hour in next 24 hours.
The cyclone would start weakening on Thursday afternoon, and is very likely to cross the adjoining coastal areas of lower Sindh and Indian Gujrat as a cyclonic storm or depression with a wind speed of 70-80 km/hour gusting to 100 km/hour on Friday night.
However, after becoming impressively strong on Tuesday, Cyclone Nilofar has weakened just a little as it makes its approach toward the Indian Coast, The Weather Channel reported.
Nilofar intensified on Tuesday with estimated wind speeds of 130 mph, according to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. The cyclone underwent rapid intensification, and became the third strongest tropical cyclone of record in the Arabian Sea, according to Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground. On Wednesday, Cyclone Nilofar’s winds weakened with wind speeds of 120 mph.
Only Gonu in 2007 (165 mph winds) and Phet in 2010 (145 mph winds) were stronger Arabian Sea tropical cyclones in the historical record, according to Masters.
According to The Weather Channel, Nilofar will curl sharply northeast and accelerate by later Wednesday, as upper-level jet stream winds grab hold of the cyclone, keeping Nilofar well east of the Arabian Peninsula.
Further, these jet stream winds will impart increasing vertical wind shear, and drier air may also work into the cyclone. These two factors are expected to weaken Nilofar significantly by the time it makes landfall somewhere along the coast of India’s Gujarat state or extreme southeast Pakistan on late Friday. At the time of landfall, Nilofar is expected to be the strength of a mid-grade tropical storm, if not weaker.
While several meteorologists are certain that the cyclone will not hit Pakistan directly, they believe that some parts of Balochistan and lower Sindh will be in the periphery of the tropical storm.
Under the influences of this cyclone, widespread rain and thundershowers with isolated heavy falls accompanied by strong gusty winds are expected in Lower Sindh including Karachi and Coastal Areas of Balochistan from today till Saturday morning.
The sea conditions along Pakistan coast have become rough and likely to become ‘very’ rough tonight. The fishermen of Sindh and Balochistan are advised not to venture in open sea today till Saturday.
Due to severity of the cyclone, the provincial home department has directed officials to immediately shift residents of these areas to safer places.
