PTI and PAT having to wriggle
If PTI and PAT are struggling with the dharna fallout it is only because they burnt their boats to begin with – not a smart strategy, apparently, considering the ups and downs of Pakistani politics. Qadri’s withdrawal must have relieved the government, yet Imran still refuses to pack, and the jalsa phenomenon – which the dharnas have spun off into – threatens more sleepless nights. Other than scrambling to keep the momentum, though, the two parties have little left in common. Qadri’s new position, quite removed from the pre-protest stance, is that his party will now contest any election in the offing, and partake in the system he vowed to stand on its head.
Imran, on the other hand, will now distance his party from all elections. The resignation issue, too, will be laid to rest, finally, when MNAs confirm en masse before the speaker on Oct29. And while Qadri jets off to revive party offices abroad, and raise finances, Imran will do two jalsas a week, while continuing the Islamabad protest, until the PM hands in his resignation. But since Nawaz is not leaving, a different type of confrontation seems developing, one that is seeing the agitators shift gear and the government choosing not to communicate its strategy, if it has developed one.
A calculated increase in public gatherings and protest marches means another crisis cannot be ruled out in the weeks and months to come. Both PTI and PAT punched above their weight by staking their reputation on the resignation. With that hand badly played, they are clearly piling pressure in whatever way they can; and large numbers in city after city has brought a degree of power back in their punch. The government, unfortunately, seems to have reverted to its typical complacency as soon as the heat wore off, and unless it postures proactively, it might lose much more energy in the second round. Its chances are not helped by the PPP going active in Punjab. The N league must be prepared for the type of provocation that will follow, and work out a strategy that rules out a serious crisis at all costs. The party risks losing ground in Punjab. Further miscalculation can have it seriously on the run on home turf. PTI and PAT may be wriggling, but they are staying relevant.