Another jolt to the system may not be far off
The end of Pakistan Awami Tehreek’s sit-in has removed much of the tension that had characterised the political atmosphere for over two months. The PML-N leadership, which had been under severe pressure all this time, has breathed a sigh of relief.
Meanwhile, the end of the sit-in has raised a number of questions about the future course of events. Has the PML N leadership learnt any lessons from the standoff from which it managed to get away just with the skin of its teeth? Is the threat to the system really over? Has the script writer decided now to let things take their normal course without extraneous intervention? Will the government complete its tenure without hassle? What will be the role of the major parties in days to come? Will the PTI MNAs withdraw their resignations and return to the national assembly? How long will the PPP continue to stand by the PML-N in the name of defending the system?
Those who had expected the PML-N leadership to emerge wiser from the trauma have been dismayed by its inability to learn. The attitudes which had pushed the government to the brink continue to persist. Considering that the crisis is over, Nawaz Sharif has reverted to complacency that has characterised him all along. The ministers have put off the mask of humility to reveal the all too familiar arrogance; the cynical smirks while the overbearing tone is back.
With this kind of attitude prevailing, another jolt to the system may not be far off. The PTI and PAT will keep the pot boiling. PPP would also join the fray if for nothing than to qualify as a genuine opposition party. Coming years might turn into the longest election campaign in the country’s history.
Those who had expected the PML-N leadership to emerge wiser from the trauma have been dismayed by its inability to learn. The attitudes which had pushed the government to the brink continue to persist
What will help the government’s opposition is the situation on the ground. There is no attempt to provide the common man a modicum of relief. The PML-N is all for high visibility mega projects. Power theft by the influential continues to add to line losses which are transferred to the bills of those who pay. Large sections of business community are untaxed or under-taxed while the salaried class has to bear all the burden. The trickle down policy has benefitted only the rich while pushing large chunks of population below poverty line. The public anger, on which PTI and PAT had capitalised, remains unabated.
While PAT has wound up its camp in Islamabad it continues to hold public meetings, which attract big crowds because people continue to remain dissatisfied with the performance of the government. After the type of reception Tahirul Qadri has been accorded in different cities it is unrealistic to hope that he would go abroad for a long time.
Qadri has all along been deadly opposed to the Sharifs. The indiscriminate firing on PTA workers in Model Town that killed over a dozen and caused injuries to many more has created a new dispute that would be difficult to resolve in the near future. The way the Punjab government got an FIR of its liking registered in the case amounted to adding insult to injury. Qadri would henceforth be a part of any movement that is launched against the PML-N government.
With the PTI’s attention riveted on public meetings in different cities it might decide to end l its sit-in in Islamabad in days to come. The party MNAs’ return to the national assembly, too, cannot be ruled out. While Imran Khan has realised that the demand for the resignation of the prime minister is not presently feasible, he has delayed the matter for a year. Meanwhile he would keep on the lookout for any blunder on the part of the government to kick start another agitation. He would keep the pot boiling by continuing to hold public meetings all over Pakistan.
Imran Khan also sees the rallies as a preparation for the local government polls. He believes the exposure of the PML-N policies is the best way to capture votes. While keeping the option to seek the government’s removal open, he is also making preparations for the elections.
Imran Khan also sees the rallies as a preparation for the local government polls. He believes the exposure of the PML-N policies is the best way to capture votes
Despite acting independently of each other Imran Khan and Qadri are involved in a complementary activity. In case they realise after the end of their series of public meetings, which might take a year, that it is feasible to start a countrywide agitation for the removal of the government, they would go ahead with it.
The PPP which has stood by the PML-N during the recent crisis maintaining that it was supporting the system cannot afford to play a second fiddle to the ruling party in days to come. In fact it is keen to gradually distance itself from the PML-N.
To ensure coming to power the PPP will have to win a fairly large number of seats from Punjab, the present stronghold of the PML-N. Practically ousted from other provinces, the Sharifs will fight tooth and nail to retain their influence in Punjab. The PPP’s gain would be considered by the PML-N as its loss.
It is Bhutto-Zardari’s foremost aim to resurrect the party in Punjab. Keeping in view the dire straits where the PPP finds itself, he cannot simply sit in Bilawal House Lahore and receive delegations. He needs to run around, visit different cities, meet the dissidents and hold public meetings. Being on the hit-list of the TTP he needs sufficient security to hold political activities in the province which the PML-N government alone can provide.
Reorganising the PPP and putting life in it will require time. Once Bilawal-Zardari is able to pick up the pieces he will be an opposition leader exposing and challenging the government.
Despite the recent exchange of repartee between Zardari and Qadri, the PPP and PAT have a history of alliance against the PML-N. Persecuted by the Sharif government in 1999, Benazir Bhutto worked together with Qadri for a while. The two even jointly addressed a public gathering at Minar-e-Pakistan. When abroad, Bhutto was a nominal member of the then non-political Minhajul Quran.
The PPP has already suggested the reduction of the government’s tenure to four years. In case the party is confident of making political gains it will push the demand further. It might even join those demanding midterm elections in case the call gains traction. While Imran Khan is likely to opt for a solo flight in days to come, the PPP might not be unwilling to join hands with PAT and the PML-Q.
