Who is to blame?
There was Rising India, then Shining India and now under a Hindu nationalist supported BJP government we have Belligerent India. This, however, is not a new development because as far as Pakistan is concerned India has always been belligerent. The claws may have been retracted or hidden in velvet gloves but they have always been there. Now the gloves are off and there is surprise all around. No one is asking why India should do anything to ‘normalise’ the relationship with Pakistan especially when its perception of Pakistan is that of a state in decline, threatened from within, with a fractured and enfeebled society and in the grip of terrorism and political instability, with troubled civil-military relations, a beleaguered government that cannot govern and with growing asymmetries with an India that thinks it is headed for bigger things.
This perception may have come from an analysis of Pakistan but it could easily have come from the speeches of the politicians locking horns with the government and the debates and discussions in the media. India has no reason whatsoever to hold a dialogue with Pakistan unless it needs to do this as a subterfuge for other plans and India has no motivation whatsoever to let Pakistan off the hook to give it the respite it needs to put its house in order. India wants Pakistan to stew in its own juices and it will act only to turn up the heat or add Indian spices to the stew.
Pakistan’s military is involved in a war with insurgents in the western border area and these insurgents and others with linkages to urban based militants can be tweaked to ensure that this war never ends. In fact militant separatists in Sindh and Balochistan can be discreetly supported to keep the cauldron bubbling. The sectarian, political, economic and ethnic fissures in society can be widened and criminal enterprises given an opportunity to exploit the destabilized environment. Periodic staged incidents will keep FDI out of Pakistan and increase its diplomatic isolation in proportion to the battering its image gets in the media at home and abroad.
There are other possibilities: the post-2014 situation in Afghanistan with Taliban of all species massing in southern Afghanistan is tailor made to stoke insurgencies in Pakistan with or without the connivance of the US and Afghan governments; Iran’s sensitivity to sectarian atrocities and terrorism from Pakistan can be raised into concern and conflict and China’s very real concern of externally supported uprisings in its Sinkiang province bordering Pakistan could rise very high if militants were to be encouraged. Inroads into the media could be a real boost to all these activities. The two factions that need to be discredited and defanged are the ISI — Pakistan’s first line of defence and its military — the bulwark against threats. There are many who are ready and willing to help, unfortunately. To be sure this environment is not of India’s making but why on earth should India not seize this opportunity to fully exploit what it is being offered on a plate.
It is in the context of this background that one should understand India’s decision to cancel talks with Pakistan and then follow up with massive ceasefire violations not just on the Line of Control in Kashmir but also along the working border that links the LoC to the international border. Then there are the threats being hurled by Indian statesmen and the Indian media, never ones to pass up an opportunity. Even a moron would understand that Pakistan right now is in no position to do anything that would activate the eastern border much less ‘amass militants in camps along the LoC’ as is being alleged.
There are those making excuses for India, that it is acting to appease the hard line Hindu lobby that supports the BJP government or that this is a transient phase because of the upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir that the government wants to win or that the Pakistan military does not want India-Pakistan relations to improve either because it does not understand reality or because of its own interests or just to oppose the elected government that wants good relations with India. There is the mantra of the military calling the shots on foreign and security policies because it has brow beaten the elected government into giving up their powers — can the military do this without total control over all resources for policymaking and implementation? Another favourite is that the establishment mindset has not changed from the days of seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan and using sub-conventional warfare in Kashmir. Surely the military understands the post-9/11 environment and would not be deliberately following such policies now. The naivety of these assertions has no bounds and that is why their absurdity is so obvious.
The National Security Adviser and Adviser on Foreign Affairs Mr Sartaj Aziz stated that the ‘Indian actions are part of a larger strategy’. A retiring general warned of the need for urban ‘intelligence led capacity driven operations’ in tandem with Operation Zarb-e-Azb in the FATA areas implying that the threat needed to be understood and countered. Without going into the scale, dimension and likely duration of Zarb-e-Azb, it can be concluded that this operation was timed to ensure political ownership and public support and that it is succeeding beyond doubt. With FATA secure the western border can be controlled and threats effectively deterred. The urgent need is for political stability, strong governance, policy formulation and the rule of law, economic uplift and sound civil–military relations. If this is not ensured quickly then there is no way that the other looming challenges can be met. Those in positions of authority need to assume leadership and control and rise above vendettas and petty squabbling. The time for reform is here and now.
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