How things got to this
With the Americans wrapping up the Afghan war, drone strikes continuing, and Zarb-e-Azb bringing its own demographic challenges, the relationship with the US remains as dicey as ever. Perhaps the last time Islamabad and Washington were truly on the same page was in the Soviet war days. And post 9/11 especially, the interaction has been dominated by mutual doubt, mistrust, accusations and counter accusations. That, of course, does not bode well for Pakistan. The superpower feeds not just our military, but the larger economy as well. And it is a major decision maker in the region. Pakistan should be more circumspect, especially now, when new governments are settling in Kabul and New Delhi; neither too sympathetic towards Islamabad.
But that is exactly where a larger problem presents itself. Islamabad is not very popular within the region either. Problems with Afghanistan have piled ever since the Taliban fell and strategic depth fizzled out. In fact, according to reports in the local and foreign press, Afghan intelligence – with help from its American masters – played no small part in promoting the TTP insurgency inside Pakistan. The Mehsuds, who dominated the TTP till Hakimullah, had proven linkages with the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan’s security service. The eastern border, on the other hand, is simmering again. Things have not been smooth with Delhi for a while, but Modi’s rise has come with increased belligerence from the traditional rival. There is open talk of “the enemy” and its “reliance on proxy wars”. There is also the new demand that Islamabad distance itself from Hurriyet; so things are not getting better for a while on the east either.
Even more seriously, the long friendship with Iran is also coming under strain. The Iranians were getting increasingly frustrated with the dilly-dally on the pipeline. And tempers were raised when Tehran accused Pakistan based militants of kidnapping their border guards, killing one. Last week, when their troops crossed the border and raided a house inside Pakistani territory, a very important line was crossed, and the diplomatic exchange will definitely worsen before it gets any better. China, too, is increasingly concerned about Pakistan based militants spreading extremism inside its borders.
The regional context finds Pakistan in an awkward position. The government must take these matters very seriously, and devise a multi-pronged strategy to improve relations with crucial neighbours. Things should never have been allowed to get this bad, but now that they have, there should be a realisation of this emergency at the highest levels. Perhaps a good start would be appointing a full-time foreign minister.
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