How things have changed
That a Pak-India thaw is not in the offing anytime soon is hardly breaking news. The Indians have been clearly belligerent since Modi came to power. Their foreign secretary made their position clear while Nawaz was still in Delhi (for Modi’s inauguration). Then Modi went to Kargil – visibly provocative – talking about “the enemy” and its reliance on proxy wars. Then their army chief chipped in with his two pence worth, making teach-them-a-lesson threats that sat well with the Indian media. Then they broke off the foreign secretary meeting over the Hurriyat row. And now there are recurrent LoC and working boundary violations.
Nawaz received his fair share of criticism for not responding forcefully – even the defence minister’s “befitting reply” came after some media pressure – but, interestingly, he has begun employing the K-word again, much to New Delhi’s irritation. First, despite India’s concerns, he made quite a long mention of Kashmir at the UN General Assembly. Soon afterwards, Sartaj Aziz wrote to Ban Ki Moon, urging more serious UN attention on the matter. This means the cross-border tit-for-tat is going to continue for some time. But it’s interesting how Nawaz’s stance has changed. He came to office promoting friendlier ties with India, which would be dominated by trade, not politics. He even invested considerable time pacifying his core centre-right constituency. But the gesture rubbed the security establishment the wrong way. And along with the Musharraf trial, contributed to the strain with the military.
But why the about turn? Is it because Modi’s posturing removed any hopes Nawaz had built about commerce-dominated peace? Or is it that he is so weakened politically that he can no longer afford to go his own way regarding India? Have the dharnas taken the wind out of his sail, or have his own faults invited the backlash? And if he is so trapped on the home front, how does he hope to break ground internationally.
No doubt Nawaz will have to reorganise. Not only will he have to come up with a well thought out strategy for dealing with an aggressive India under Modi – for which he will, at least, need a full-time foreign minister – he will also have to reorient his domestic political setup. The sooner such steps are taken the sooner there will be clarity, at least about where the most important decisions are being taken and what their consequences could be.