One step forward, two steps back

Sharif tried to go it alone, achieving nothing in the end

As governments in Pakistan take one step forward to improve relations with India, they end up retreating two steps back. One of the major reasons is failure to evolve necessary understanding with various stakeholders, in particular the military and various political forces represented in parliament.

Over the years a consensus has grown in the country that it is imperative to improve relations with India to strengthen Pakistan’s economy, bring down defence expenditure and improve the livelihood of the people. While it is understood that this requires the resolution of outstanding disputes that include Kashmir, a step by step approach alone can break the decades-old deadlock.

The Kargil misadventure was the first major setback to attempts at normalisation. A lot of backchannel diplomacy finally broke the ice and a composite dialogue was initiated during the Musharraf era. This once again generated hopes of improvement in ties between the neighbours. Musharraf agreed in talks with Vajpayee that Pakistan’s territory and areas under its control would not be allowed to be used against any other country. The Mumbai terror attack in 2008 however delivered a devastating blow to all the confidence building that had been undertaken.

It took PPP four years to resume the suspended dialogue. This time it was decided to put emphasis on business relations first. Kashmir continued to be considered a key dispute that could not be ignored. It was however understood that less intractable issues should be taken up first to restore mutual confidence. Kashmir meanwhile could be put on the back burner. Enhanced business ties were supposed to generate compulsions that could force powerful circles on both sides to support a peaceful resolution of the disputes.

Not that anyone was in doubt regarding the balance of trade remaining in New Delhi’s favour for quite sometime. But hadn’t China-India business ties been useful to India despite the balance of trade being highly unfavourable for New Delhi? Close business ties, it was believed, would bring benefits to Pakistan as imports from India would be cheaper for a number of reasons including geographical proximity. The approach began to pay off.

The captains of industry on both sides now replaced the ineffectual peaceniks as the new ambassadors of peace. By 2012 private sector started playing important role in the improvement of relations between the two countries

The captains of industry on both sides now replaced the ineffectual peaceniks as the new ambassadors of peace. By 2012 private sector started playing important role in the improvement of relations between the two countries. The immediate warming up of the business community to the idea underlined the relevance of the private sector in the peace process. Pakistan slashed the negative list of imports radically. India allowed foreign investments from Pakistan. A trade gate was opened at Wagah. Fresh from the successful opening of the Wagah-Attari border trading post, India said it was keen to throw open the Khokhrapar-Munabao border point as well.

The new emphasis on trade was not just the PPP’s initiative. There was an understanding with the PML-N over the measures being taken. Punjab Chief Minister Shehbaz Sharif emphasised the need for greater political will to improve bilateral ties. He said that both countries would have to rise above past bitter experience and work together for economic integration. Instead of circular route for importing goods through Mumbai-Dubai-Karachi or Karachi-Singapore-Mumbai both countries needed to trade through Attari, he maintained.

For a while it seemed that the military leadership too was not altogether opposed to the moves being made. In April speaking in Skardu COAS Kayani said he would like to see the country spend less on defence. He argued that national security depended on development as much as on protecting borders. National security, he emphasised, should be a comprehensive concept. “And therefore we would like to spend less on defence, definitely,” he said. “Any country should do the same – more focus should be on the welfare of the people.”

With the advent of 2013, things suddenly deteriorated on the Pak-India border. In the first week of January there were three deadly cross-border incidents in the disputed Kashmir region. Some people, somewhere, were not happy with the development.

The incidents continued even after PML-N assumed power. The issue appeared prominently as Sharif and Manmohan met in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. Finally there was a respite to cross border incidents after a meeting had been held between the two DGMOs.

With the Indian elections approaching, it was considered advisable to wait for the results before making another attempt to improve the relations. Sharif made the next move by attending Modi’s inauguration

With the Indian elections approaching, it was considered advisable to wait for the results before making another attempt to improve the relations. Sharif made the next move by attending Modi’s inauguration.

The decision was taken without necessary preparations. There was no discussion with domestic stake holders, the military being one, the parliament another. As the PML-N runs the country like a family business concern, there was no discussion even in the cabinet.

Given the firmly entrenched military-led national security narrative, he should have engaged the National Security Committee in a dialogue to persuade the military leaders in support of a peace-driven and economically viable democratic vision for the future. A discussion on the issue should have been initiated over the months after coming to power. The matter should have also been taken to parliament for a consensus among the parties. But Sharif was unwilling to share anything with parliament. For a whole year he did not attend any meeting of the senate and attended just a few sittings of the national assembly.

Sharif was after achieving laurels for himself without sharing them with anyone else. While the meeting with the new Indian prime minister was described by Sharif as a ‘great opportunity’ for opening a new chapter, Modi reiterated the position the Indian establishment had taken after Mumbai attacks. There could not be peaceful relations with Pakistan unless terror is brought to an end, he said

While in New Delhi Sharif invited Indian businessmen to invest in Pakistan. He tried to convince them that like Modi he too was a business-friendly leader. He welcomed Indian investment in Pakistan and emphasised the need for the two countries to work together to ensure stability and security in the region.

Back home, the knives were out. Sections of media and right wing parties criticised the visit bitterly maintaining that it had been harmful for the country. Meanwhile Sharif’s relations with the army continued to deteriorate.

As pressures on him increased Sharif took two steps back. In his speech in the UN General Assembly he described the Kashmir dispute as “the core issue” between India and Pakistan. He rejected by implication focusing on other issues such as better bilateral trade for improving ties.