India-Pakistan impasse

Diplomacy the only solution

Leadership on both sides of the divide is busy exchanging accusations and counter accusations. As a result violence between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (LOC) and the working boundary in the disputed Kashmir region has escalated to a level unprecedented in the past decade.

The hurriedly convened National Security Committee chaired by the prime minister and with the top brass in attendance has vowed to give a befitting response to New Delhi. But ground realities dictate that immediate steps are needed to deescalate.

Considering the strongly worded India-US joint statement after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the US, specifically naming Pakistani jihadist groups operating in Kashmir, the ongoing skirmishes are not at all surprising.

Nonetheless their timing and scale, peppered by the jingoistic rhetoric of the BJP leadership, is ominous. While responding to critics why he had not spoken in the situation along the LOC, the Indian prime minister has warned Pakistan that times have changed and now it is the soldiers who will answer with fingers on the trigger. Similarly the Indian defence minister Arun Jaitley has warned that it will make “Pakistani adventurism” unaffordable for it.

Apart from perfunctory statements from advisor on foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz and defence minister Khawaja Asif, Islamabad has been remarkably restrained in the war of words. In fact, by his silence, Nawaz Sharif has incurred the wrath of dharna politicians Imran khan and TUQ (Tahirul Qadri).

Ironically, the bête noire of the Indians, the head of JuD (Jamaat-ud-Dawaa) Hafiz Saeed, has criticised Sharif for his reticence on the matter. The prime minister, on the other hand, looks visibly depressed and worried about the situation.

His dream of a harmonious business oriented relationship with India stands shattered at least for the foreseeable future. Perhaps he had somewhat naively surmised that Modi assuming the mantle of premiership in Delhi was a Vajpayee moment for him. Resultantly he thought that he would be able to pick up the shattered pieces of the 1999 Lahore Process.

Perhaps he had somewhat naively surmised that Modi assuming the mantle of premiership in Delhi was a Vajpayee moment for him. Resultantly he thought that he would be able to pick up the shattered pieces of the 1999 Lahore Process

Perhaps with this perception in mind Sharif enthusiastically attended Modi’s inaugural back in May. However his not taking up the Kashmir issue on the sidelines of the inaugural and failing to invite the Hurriyat leadership as per the past norm raised eyebrows at home.

Adding insult to injury, Modi did not reciprocate Sharif’s gestures. Quite to the contrary, in his meeting with Sharif, he raised New Delhi’s concerns regarding terrorist groups operating from Pakistani soil.

Sharif’s disastrous sojourn to Delhi is also cited as one reason amongst others that became a source of tension with his freshly appointed military chief. Imran Khan and TUQ’s carefully coordinated dharnas have cut him down to size.

Enthusiasm for a fast track Indo-Pakistan amity has visibly waned since then. The Pakistan High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit meeting the Hurriyat leadership on the eve of secretary level talks in Islamabad resulted in a last minute cancellation of the meeting by New Delhi.

It is obvious that New Delhi under Modi has drawn fresh red lines in dealing with Pakistan. These include zero tolerance of what the Indians term cross border infiltration along the LOC and moves by Pakistan to restrain jihadist groups operating from its borders.

Sharif, who spoke of a visa free regime with India while in opposition, now considerably weakened, has been forced to tow the GHQ mantra. He mentioned the UN resolutions on J&K, long forgotten, in his recent speech at the United Nations General Assembly.

Notwithstanding Sharif’s lost enthusiasm for moving fast to mend India-Pakistan relations, Modi has played his cards well to isolate Pakistan. As mentioned in an earlier article, the Indian prime minister had a fruitful visit to Washington DC.

He was successful in convincing his American hosts about Islamabad harbouring India centric terrorist outfits and to move against them with full might. That is exactly what the Indian army is doing on the pretext of real or perceived Pakistani infiltration.

Sadly enough it has happened at a time when the Pakistani military is engaged in an existential war to root out terrorists holed up in Pakistan’s tribal belt. Ostensibly the new Indian adventurism has Washington’s strategic and tactical support.

Despite Islamabad’s protestations numerous US drone attacks in the badlands during the past week could not have been possible without Intel from Pakistan. But sadly on the other hand Modi was given a tacit go ahead by US president Obama to do whatever he wants in the name of stopping terrorists from infiltrating on the LOC.

This is also an implicit manifestation of Islamabad’s failing foreign policy as a result of which there is hardly any acknowledgement of the Pakistani military being the only success story in the world to root out terrorism in the name of jihad.

Pakistan’s dicey internal situation is also partly to be blamed for the current impasse. While Indian democracy, under a freshly elected prime minister, is on the ascendency, in Pakistan the situation is exactly the reverse

Pakistan’s dicey internal situation is also partly to be blamed for the current impasse. While Indian democracy, under a freshly elected prime minister, is on the ascendency, in Pakistan the situation is exactly the reverse.

Imran Khan’s concerted campaign that May 2013 elections were entirely fraudulent has inexorably damaged the efficacy of the PML-N government. Not only it is weakened vis-à-vis the military, it is also hostage to the whims of the parliamentary opposition, albeit supporting it for the time being.

Prime Minister Sharif’s inertia in politically responding to the combined gauntlet thrown by the Imran TUQ duo is quite enigmatic. What is stopping him from taking unilateral steps including reforming the election process and forming a judicial commissions to restore the legitimacy of the electoral process or for that matter to reshuffle the cabinet to improve governance?

For example, he should end the dichotomy in the foreign office by appointing a full time foreign minister. Pakistan needs one right now. Similarly Khawaja Asif has his hands full as minister for water and power. A full time defence minister should replace him.

Sharif is doing his best to demonstrate bonhomie towards the military. Being the first prime minster ever to visit North Waziristan and summoning the National Security Committee the very next day are steps in the right direction.

Nonetheless he has to demonstrate decisively that he is in charge and on the same page with the khakis. Perception to the contrary has perhaps sent the wrong signals to our enemies.

Diplomatic steps need to be immediately taken, as a military solution to the present impasse for the two nuclear-armed belligerent neighbours is simply not an option. This could mean not only the DGMOs (director general military operations) talking to each other but Sharif personally engaging Modi.

Islamabad should convince the Indian leadership that Zarb e Azb is in their enlightened self-interest. Instead of the military doing the talking through bullets, as Modi has facetiously claimed, jaw-jaw is the only answer.

Interestingly, the Nobel peace prize has been shared between Malala Yousafzai and Indian anti-child labour activist Kailash Satyarthi. It should remind people in both countries that they share a long common history, and they should resolve their issues amicably instead of fighting. But perhaps it will take a lot of effort to convince war drummers about peace dividends.