Forever frozen in time
It only took Nawaz Sharif to bring up Kashmir at the UN and contents of Modi’s reaction speech were more or less certain. And whatever diplomacy glossed over the Indian posture, in reality it means the peace process has been put in a state of freeze, once again. In this way Modi has actually proved Nawaz right; that India backs off whenever core issues are brought into the equation, and there cannot really be any progress till core issues are addressed. Even if foreign secretaries were to meet in such a situation, there would not be much on the table.
Both Sharif and Modi leaned towards rapprochement during their election campaigns. But while the former must be credited with fighting for it, it seems the latter was under the illusion that its own preferences would dictate the flow of events. Nawaz not only had to bend his centre-right constituency and sections of the army, but also gave the Indians ‘goodwill’ space by avoiding Hurriyet in New Delhi. But Modi wanted the flexibility to serve as the bare-minimum starting point, and wanted Kashmir out of any talks, not just between foreign secretaries or at the UN, but from the Pak-India equation altogether.
It’s not very often that politics of Islamabad and New Delhi gives reason for hope. The last time genuine progress seemed possible was during the Musharraf years. It was learned that despite initial friction, it was possible to move forward because of intense back door diplomacy, which created a more workable atmosphere when senior representatives met. In the words of Khurshid Kasuri, then foreign minister, there was agreement in both capitals that a deal on some core issues was “a signature away”, and would have materialised if Pakistan’s internal tensions ’07 onwards had not paralysed Islamabad. But Modi’s conditions make even the back door unworkable. Expecting Pakistan to reverse on Kashmir so talks can proceed without core issues is politically immature. New Delhi must realise that the route to progress lies in dealing with the most important problems, especially now when Islamabad is willing to play ball.