TTP concerns

And scope of Zarb-e-Azb

That TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid is back in the news on a regular basis is not good news for Pakistan. Tuesday’s attack in Peshawar was in return for Zarb-e-Azb, and the forces should expect more, he said. This, seen in the context of gradually escalating threat level over the past few weeks, means we have definitely entered the blowback phase of the North Waziristan operation; however limited the militants’ ability to strike back at the moment. Therefore, significant as some of the recent advances have been, there is still need to do a lot more. The Punjabi Taliban will no longer fight the state, there are divisions within the Mehsuds dominating the TTP, the Haqqanis have been run out of the country, yet they retain the ability not only to strike back at sensitive military institutions and personnel, but have also revealed a deep intel penetration of at least some branches of the armed forces, which is cause for concern.

It bears noting that the Taliban have been true to some of their boasts of late, but definitely not all. For the briefest of moment when some sections believed talks with them might just yield results, their U-turn on attacks on civilians was appreciated. Some observes familiar with proxy wars and great games went so far as to say that the Islamist insurgency model itself had undergone a paramount shift. Yet it is fast becoming apparent that the Taliban might have steered clear of directly targeting civilians so far in the blowback phase, but they definitely have little trouble with civilian collateral damage.

Shahidullah also promised attacks against PML-N members, which means politicians of its choosing are also fair game in its self styled jihad for shari’a. No doubt this will add to the sincerity of the security effort, especially in Punjab. But the authorities are not seen working on the narrative, and winning of hearts and minds, which was supposed to be part and parcel of the operation. Popular perception about jihad, shari’a, and even the Taliban is far from clear, especially in rural areas where a sense of deprivation helps push people to religious extremism. Zarb-e-Azb may have been successful militarily, but the operation will need far more than ‘cleansing’ the badlands to completely root out militancy from the country. Good that the tribal area is secure, but it seems increasingly that the real war will be fought in the cities, and will be more intel-intensive than the initial phase.