Even more dangerous now
The Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan emerged from its hibernation with an announcement by its leader Ayman al Zawahiri that henceforth the focus would be on the ‘Indian subcontinent’, implying that India would be included in the ambit of Al-Qaeda operations. The kneejerk reaction in India was to sound a terror alert but the more considered reaction is likely to be much greater ‘attention’ to its Muslim population, especially in Kashmir. In fact the recent ceasefire violations by India along the Line of Control may be a pre-emptive step triggered by fears of infiltration besides of course appeasing the hardline Hindu lobbies (that back the Modi government), ahead of state elections in IHK. Perhaps the more pragmatic step of meaningfully cooperating with Pakistan will be considered later. There are other developments that warrant close cooperation between India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
As if as a sequel to the Al-Qaeda announcement the TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) made its own announcement on August 26, 2014, stating that a group of the TTP under Maulana Qasim Omar Khorasani would henceforth be called the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA — Assembly of Freedom). The video announcement claimed that the new JuA included TTP factions from Bajaur (Maulana Abdullah), Khyber (Qari Ismail), Mohmand (Abdul Wali Omar Khalid al Khorasani — also overall JuA founder and leader), Orakzai (Maulana Haider) as well as non FATA shura or council members — Qari Shakil Haqqani from Charsadda, Mufti Misbah from Peshawer and Maulana Yasin from Swat. Swat is of course from where the current umbrella TTP leader Maulana Fazlullah comes and it is his leadership that has earlier caused heavy infighting among Taliban factions culminating in the breakup and emergence of JuA. A former TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan is now the JuA spokesman.
JuA has claimed alliance with the ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) under the leadership of Baghdadi. The JuA also opposes the elected government of Pakistan and any peace talks with it. In fact Khorasani had opposed the talks when they were held from January 29 till they collapsed on February 17, 2014. At that time Khorasani had said that his aim was sharia in Pakistan and that his group would continue attacks under the banner of Ahrar-ul-Hind (AuH — Freedom of India) — predating Al-Qaeda’s latest announcement. AuH seems to have morphed into JuA. Another shadow organisation Junud-e-Khorasan (JeK — Soldiers of Khorasan) has also been absorbed into the JuA. Before its merger into JuA the JuH had claimed responsibility for the attack on a court in Islamabad that led to multiple deaths including a judge of the court.
After Fazlullah’s ascension to leadership the infighting among the TTP led to the killing of many fighters, including leaders like Nadeem Abbas Intiqami, Asmatullah Shaheen Bittani, and Tariq Afridi. Khorasani, the present JuA leader, was formally expelled from the TTP on September 14, 2014, for being part of the JuA thus making the parting of ways between the TTP and JuA a certainty. It may be recalled that in February 2014, while still a part of TTP that was engaged in talks with the government of Pakistan, the Khorasani faction had claimed the abduction and killing of 23 soldiers of the Frontier Corps. Another TTP group — the Said Khan Sajna group — is also distinct from the Fazlullah’s TTP and may join the JuA or operate independently.
Yet another shift in the scenario is the announcement by the Punjabi Taliban under Ismail Muawiyah that they would no longer target Pakistan but would continue to target ‘infidels’. Another group under Shaheryar Mahsud, a contender for TTP leadership, after the killings of Baitullah and Hakimullah Mahsud has made a similar announcement. It remains to be seen whether this is a tactical shift in the wake of the determined operation Zarbe-e-Azb by the Pakistan military or a strategic change. The more ominous report is that large numbers of middle and lower rank commanders of the TTP have joined the JuA and that some brochures promoting ISIS have been distributed in a part of FATA. The reports of insider collusion in the recent attack on the Navy Dockyard and earlier attacks on important facilities in 2009 and 2011 as well as the attack on the Jinnah Airport, Karachi, and the Air Base in Quetta, make the threat serious.
The goings-on in Islamabad need to end and the political institution and the military should put their heads together because the new breakaway faction has made it clear that they want to end democracy in Pakistan, establish sharia, seize nuclear weapons and wage a struggle for an Islamic caliphate that rules the world. A strong cohesive Pakistan with political stability, economic viability and civil-military cooperation is the only defence against the growing threats. The ongoing military operation to establish the writ of the government in FATA and sideline the threat from the West demands total national support without distractions. A failure to ensure this will create exploitable vulnerabilities that our enemies will not ignore. The military’s unambiguously stated support of democracy is a step that needs to be built upon and taken further.
