Another relic past its sell-by date
Looking back, the turn of the century marked an overhaul point for the establishment machinery; not just in Pakistan, though it is instructive how central we have been to irresistible, and unbelievable, global currents. 9/11 and the internationalisation of Islamic terrorism, the western intelligence shift from the Cold War to the war on terror, the re-making of the Middle east from Enduring Freedom to Arab Spring, etc, have prompted a paradigm shift in the way defence departments work across the world. Pakistan, where the religious-militant-guerilla was created during the Soviet jihad, has faced serious problems of its own. Not only did the Taliban eventually turn on their creators, but society as a whole is in the process of a powerful retreat to the right. Even the sincerest believers of Zia’s Islam-game would be surprised at the role religion has been accorded in Pakistani society.
The militant aspect, at least, was supposed to be settled by Zarb-e-Azb. We have been told, time and again, that its end will come only when Taliban of all shades have been eliminated. And judging by the level of the enemy’s penetration of settled areas, even the biggest cities, it will need to be a very comprehensive operation to be able to honour Gen Raheel’s promise. So far, despite little independent proof, everybody has played along with the military’s score-sheet. NW is almost secure, soon IDPs will be repatriated, is the word. Yet there are reports that, if deciphered a certain way, indicate that some players might still be playing the old game, exactly the ones Zarb-e-Azb was supposed to end. News of splits within the Taliban was taken by certain circles as a repeat of the Good Taliban days, when the military supported some groups against others.
Granted, pitting insurgent groups against each other is good COIN strategy, in most cases. But when even the good guys aim for the same radicalisation of society that the bad guys are dying for, and offer their hand only so long as the palm is greased, it cannot really be a long term strategy. And the operation is not meant to be a short term solution. Therefore, latest reports of Sajna offering funeral prayers behind Fazlullah, Hafiz Gul Bahadur enjoying his sanctuary in Afghanistan, and even Punjabi Taliban that laid down arms making no secret of using Pakistani soil for attacks across the border, should finally seal the case on one of longest pursued flawed strategies in Pakistan’s history. It is as past its sell-by date as the bigger strategic depth doctrine.
