Khan may have already won

But the ‘procedure’ requires some finesse

On Aug14, Imran Khan, at the head of hundreds of thousands of supporters, marched on the capital with the resolve to dethrone the Sharif government. The key objective of the Azadi march has been re-elections after dissolution of the parliament, as the elections that brought the sitting government to power last year are largely believed to have been rigged. Khan’s demand for re-elections first necessitates official probing into last year’s elections and subsequent ruling that the elections were indeed rigged.

Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), believes that such an official inquiry can never be free and independent as long as the current Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, stays in power. This stance has impelled PTI to first and foremost demand the resignation of Nawaz Sharif and has generated the popular party slogan of ‘go Nawaz go’. Constitutionally, a prime minister cannot be forced to resign unless he loses the confidence of the House. With a commanding majority in the parliament and also boasting support of the opposition, any parliamentary means to force Sharif out of office are out of the question, unless he unilaterally decides to resign, which seems very unlikely. PTI appears to be banking on the latter and highly improbable scenario. Khan’s insistence on resignation first and Sharif’s refusal has led to the current deadlock with no signs of a peaceful resolution. Many commentators and analysts believe that if Khan backs down, it will be his greatest political failure and if Sharif complies with PTI demands then it will signal his political suicide. Hence, with the political futures of both actors at stake, neither side is willing to back down.

Many commentators also believe that with the military unwilling to intervene and overwhelming parliamentary support, Sharif is far better placed than Khan. Most of them now have also started suggesting various ‘face-saving’ options for Khan. On closer inspection, however, it becomes apparent that there is not only a way out of this stalemate but also that Khan and his party PTI are much better placed than many believe.

Khan’s insistence on Nawaz’s resignation for allowing an independent and transparent inquiry into rigging is well founded. Yet, without the support of the parliament this is not possible.

Khan’s insistence on Nawaz’s resignation for allowing an independent and transparent inquiry into rigging is well founded. Yet, without the support of the parliament this is not possible. On the other hand, because of mounting pressure, Sharif and his party have guaranteed a swift and independent probe into the matter and have also announced on the floor of the parliament that if rigging is indeed proved then not only the prime minister but the whole government would resign. Although Khan has reasons to doubt these government assurances, he must also realise that the prime minister will never resign without any parliamentary or military pressure. It is argued that given Khan’s repeated statements that the sit-in will not end until the prime minister resigns, a step backward will potentially put him in a difficult situation with his voters and supporters.

However, many commentators fail to realise that the burden of proof on Khan and his party had been to establish without doubt that there indeed was mass rigging in the last general elections. On this front, the party has done considerably well. Not only have they been able to sway public opinion in their favour with a very convincing campaign but they have also been given the stamp of approval by the parliament.

Where the protests and sit-ins have resulted in resounding and unequivocal support of Sharif and his government in parliament, they have also generated parliamentary acknowledgement of electoral rigging by both the opposition and the government. The statements of upholding the current parliamentary setup and conceding electoral fraud are not only mutually contradictory but can also be used as firsthand evidence in any judicial proceedings. The declarations of the parliamentarians on the floor of the house are not random statements but formal official assertions — as all members are under oath and any deliberate misrepresentation or dishonest statements is against the writ of the constitution. PTI has already been successful in convincing a substantial segment of the electorate that the elections were rigged. Furthermore, they also possess evidence that they have shown off during various past press conferences. And now, they have also secured the parliamentary stamp to further vindicate their position. Thus, it will be hard to find anyone in the country, irrespective of their political affiliations, that will contest the fraudulent elections.

Hence, if PTI has been successful in creating a general sense that the elections were indeed rigged then what remains to be done is the official and administrative sanctioning of this fact, which will then be followed by the resignation of the prime minister and his government and also the dissolution of the parliament.

Khan must realise that he and his party have accomplished, especially with the parliamentary stamp, the paramount task of proving electoral rigging. What remains to be done is the due administrative and official procedure, following which his end goal will be accomplished. Given the stakes and the amount of evidence that has come forth especially in the last couple of weeks and with the military (trusted by PTI) willing to act as a guarantor, it is very unlikely that any committee will give a verdict against rigging. As any such ruling will not only contradict the huge evidence that has come forth but will also seriously undermine the credibility of the parliamentarians who have repeatedly iterated in various parliamentary sessions that the elections were indeed rigged. Lastly, any such verdict also gravely risks mass protests across the country, as most people are largely convinced of rigging.

Admittedly, Khan is under a lot of political pressure because of his statements that he will not go back until Sharif resigns. What he does not understand is that he has already achieved this.

The official and administrative standard procedures simply cannot be by-passed. Khan should know that even though electoral rigging has been proven without doubt, it still needs to go through the proper administrative channel to have the desired effect. The government, because of the ongoing protests, has been tremendously pressured into providing this channel and Khan must capitalise on it. Irrespective of what committee/commission is setup, there is little, if at all any doubt, that claims of electoral rigging will be challenged. Because if there is any consensus that has emerged out of the current political impasse, it is that the elections were rigged. The problem in essence is an administrative and procedural one and there is very little that Khan and PTI can do about it. Sharif will be forced to resign when the due administrative process has taken place (as the constitution dictates), one need not hold a gun to his head.

The parliamentary position that they cannot yield to Khan’s demands because they are bound by constitution is, in essence, referring to this administrative procedure. Their further insistence that this will set a wrong precedent as anyone in future could gather a crowd and demand something unconstitutional bears strong merit. This is why PTI, in order to achieve their goal, must work towards facilitating the administrative procedure.

Admittedly, Khan is under a lot of political pressure because of his statements that he will not go back until Sharif resigns. What he does not understand is that he has already achieved this through proving electoral rigging and forcing the government to allow the administrative passage imperative for its official sanctioning, which, because already proven, will consequently result in the resignation of Sharif and his government. The Azadi march has achieved more than it could have hoped for. It has forced many parliamentarians to acknowledge that the elections were rigged, created a general environment where everyone in the country is convinced that the elections were indeed fraudulent, and most importantly, it has achieved the administrative window necessary for the official and formal endorsement of electoral rigging.

All Khan needs to do now is to negotiate the time frame of this administrative process, for which he is very well placed. There should not be anything holding him back, he and his party have done their job in proving and establishing electoral fraud beyond any doubt, they must now stand back and allow the administrative process to take effect. Not consenting to that soon enough could result in a sudden government crackdown, which could further complicate matters or worse – force a military takeover. Sharif’s resignation is now only a matter of time subject to this due administrative process. It will not be hard to convince the PTI voters that they have taken Sharif’s resignation in principle. Khan may have already won, but not understanding the ‘procedural problem’ may deprive him of this victory.