Perhaps Imran has been reading too much into his own legend
Imran’s ego was already buoyed up when he decided to take part in May 2013 elections. The October 2011 public meeting at Minar-e-Pakistan was enough to bloat his ego. The meetings later held in Karachi and Quetta further confirmed Khan’s belief in his own popularity.
To the surprise of everyone he put up a total of 767 candidates for the national and provincial constituencies, only 82 less than the total seats. That so many people were willing to contest on his ticket strengthened the bloated image of the self that Khan had developed.
The PTI was by and large shunned by the traditional contestants belonging to the so called political families. Except for a small fraction, all the contestants were first entrants in politics. They were youthful and energetic but had no personal influence in their respective constituencies. They were to fully depend on Imran Khan’s appeal. Their success depended on the hypothetical presence of a groundswell of electoral support for Imran.
Imran Khan was carried away by the enthusiastic crowds that turned up at his gatherings. By the time the elections arrived he had already decided that he had won.
Did a pro PTI wave really exist in the country?
The test came soon. The PTI fielded 142 representatives for the National Assembly constituencies against a total of 148 seats. It presented 294 contenders for 297 constituencies of the Punjab Assembly. In KP the party put up 34 candidates against 35 national constituencies and 98 against 99 provincial seats. Whatever wave existed was confined only to Punjab and KP. He fared badly in Sindh and Balochistan. His performance in Punjab was far below his expectations.
The PTI fielded 142 representatives for the National Assembly constituencies against a total of 148 seats. It presented 294 contenders for 297 constituencies of the Punjab Assembly.
PTI got the second largest number of votes in the general election though it finished third in the number of seats The party polled 7.7 million votes in the May 11 election to win 28 national assembly seats, but the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) which led the outgoing government took 32 seats with only 6.9 million ballots.
The result was by and large in line with the Gallup-PILDAT survey conducted earlier in February 2013. The survey showed the PML-N was leading followed by PTI, with PPP getting the third position. The gap between the PML-N and PTI was however extraordinarily large in the crucial Punjab province. The PML-N was expected to get 63 pc as against PTI’s 15 pc in Lahore, Gujranwala and Rawalpindi Divisions, 69 pc against 9 pc in Faisalabad and Sargodha Divisions and 49 pc against 16 pc in Multan, Bahawalpur and DG Khan Divisions.
Imran Khan believed he had been deprived of victory. This is what he said in his National Assembly address soon after taking oath in June, He decided however to work within the system. He said he would support the government in its efforts to improve the economy and in efforts to stop drone attacks. The PTI also put up a candidate for the post of the president after Zardari’s retirement. Meanwhile Imran concentrated on improving the working of PTI’s government in KP.
It was in December 2013 that Khan visualised a campaign against rigging with the help of ‘like-minded parties like Tahirul Qadri’s PAT’.
Things in fact started changing after November. The thunderous applause given to him at PTI’s rally against drone strikes in Peshawar revived in Imran Khan the belief in his growing popularity. His call for stopping the NATO traffic also got enthusiastic support, at least initially. The rally against inflation next month in Lahore was a big success despite three music shows arranged by the government to subvert it.
It was in December 2013 that Khan visualised a campaign against rigging with the help of ‘like-minded parties like Tahirul Qadri’s PAT’.
Meanwhile, an obstinate government gave no indication of meeting his demand for recount in four constituencies. The dirty tactics used by the interior minister to hound out the NADRA chief strengthened the perception in PTI circles that it was not a casual rigging but a planned exercise to keep the PTI out of power at the centre.
Imran however still continued to focus on an end to the drone strikes and also demanded that the government address the issue of inflation. In early December Khan threatened street protests against ‘vote rigging’ if his s demand for recounting in four constituencies was disregarded by the arrogant government.
The real change came after Imran Khan’s interaction with Tahirul Qadri and Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain in London in May this year. It was widely known by this time that the army had developed several differences with the PML-N government. The army resented the infringement on its perceived turf by Nawaz Sharif who was keen to improve ties with India. It was unhappy over the treatment meted out to Musharraf. Another cause of grievance was the support given by the government to Geo. The statements by some of the PML-N ministers about the army too had ruffled feathers in the circles that matter.
After the London interaction one can see a clear coordination of activities between PAT, PML-Q and PTI. Was Imran given a task and promised help in the achievement of his goal to become the prime minister? Did the promise, if it was really made, come directly from the horse’s mouth? Did retired army officers in contact with the trio told them to go ahead assuring them that they would be helped?
The PAT and PTI both announced rallies, the former holding it in Rawalpindi, the latter in Islamabad, the same day. Imran Khan announced a number of public meetings. His tone continued to become harsher from one venue to another. He presented a charter of demands in Islamabad which did not mention re-elections. By the time he reached Bahawalpur he was challenging the validity of the entire electoral exercise conducted in May 2013.
Imran was now a possessed man. The march on Islamabad was also coordinated with PAT before it started. There were reports of Imran having held secret meetings with Qadri.
Things in fact started changing after November.
Both were confident of success, announcing dates of the removal of the government which continued to change. Imran was sure of the success of his mission. Before starting the march from Lahore he announced he would return only after securing the prime minister’s resignation.
Imran, who had refused to hold talks with the leader of the opposition, rushed to meet the COAS the moment he received a signal from the army quarters. It was as if a dream had come true. He was however unwilling to accept the army as a guarantor of impartial enquiry into the rigging, as he told after the meeting. Sharif had to go for no genuine enquiry could be conducted with him as prime minister.
While Khan failed to collect a million marchers, the success in keeping the sit-in going for over a month has made him believe that he would succeed in seeking Sharif’s resignation, followed by an early election where PTI would secure majority seats in the National Assembly and elect him prime minister.
The sit-in in Islamabad might eventually become unnecessary and disbanded but the agitation by the PTI will continue. The party’s core committee has already decided to hold public meetings in all major cities, beginning with Karachi.
What one is likely to see is the PTI continuing its agitation in different forms till the holding of the elections, whether these are held this year or in 2018. The PTI, meanwhile, will remain in a state of permanent revolution.
