This time from Afghanistan
The Punjabi Taliban laying down arms and the main Mehsud bloc breaking away from the TTP are no doubt significant advances in the NW operation – so much so that the army is confident it has neutralised the enemy’s main threat – yet a lot more needs to be done. The Afghan sanctuary is still available to the lot that will continue to fight, and the most frustrating thing about insurgencies is that they keep taking breaks, keep rearming and regrouping, especially if they have wealthy patrons sharing a convergence of interests.
In this particular case these patrons are Afghanistan’s secret service, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), and where their interests converge with the TTP is hardly a secret. Neither is NDS financing and arming the TTP a secret anymore, not after the US press began echoing Pakistani concerns about just such an arrangement. And now that Zarb-e-Azb has gone pretty well, according to the military, what do the Afghans do? They do not help by sealing the border. And they don’t reciprocate by cracking down on bad guys seeking refuge in Nuristan and Kunar, as they promised back in the day when Islamabad was still reluctant to go in lock, stock and barrel.
Instead, news from Afghanistan is of coordinated attacks across the Durand Line, targeting our military personnel in Bajaur and NW. The army would, of course, have foreseen just such developments, which is why how it responds will set the tone for the remainder of the operation. The thinking in Islamabad and Rawalpindi is pretty straight forward. We have decided to go all in. And no doubt Kabul will bend over backwards to play the spoiler. That is why if the bad guys are allowed to grow stronger, very blunt messages will need to be delivered to the western neighbour. With the Americans about to go, their elections still disputed and the Afghan resistance gaining momentum, they have enough problems of their own. So best not meddle with ours, especially since, according to their own conviction, there might still be elements on this side that just might make things more difficult in their own COIN realm. Afghanistan will, therefore, receive a reply from Pakistan. How it reacts will be important.
Comments are closed.