Zimbabwe forced the one-way traffic into a u-turn last week when they beat Australia to put themselves in contention for the final. That possibility faded two days later when Australia beat South Africa by a bonus point to leave the neighbours to tussle it out for the remaining spot, although it is South Africa’s to lose.
Zimbabwe will have to beat South Africa and beat them properly. Not only will they need a bonus point but their margin of victory will have to be big enough to see their net run-rate balloon beyond what may be deemed realistic. Instead, the hosts may have to content themselves with smaller success of simply competing with and challenging South Africa.
It has been a tough three weeks of fifty-over cricket for Zimbabwe. They have toggled with various combinations, dealt with suspensions and injuries and have been trapped in a tunnel of defeat until the light came on on Sunday. That one match showed Zimbabwe’s promise and the value of regular game time. This could be their last international fixture until they tour Bangladesh in October so going out with a bang will be on their minds.
South Africa will have more immediate matters to take care of. Their plans were thrown slightly off track with the loss to Australia, so they can no longer use the final game for experimentation but rather for practice in must-win situations. Victory is not essential for them but it would significantly ease the passage into Saturday’s final, where they can test themselves in a pressure-cooker situation ahead of next year’s World Cup.
The tricky equation
133 – The margin by which Zimbabwe need to beat South Africa to eliminate them from the final, if Zimbabwe bat first and score 250. If South Africa bat first and score 200, Zimbabwe will need to chase the total down in about 23.3 overs.
Form guide
(last five completed games most recent first)
Zimbabwe WLLLL
South Africa LWWWW
In the spotlight
Zimbabwe’s ability to play the complete game has only been on display once in the tournament. The test for them is to see if they can do it again and they will need their batting in particular to pull its weight. Zimbabwe’s attack has done a good containing job throughout but their batsmen have been prone to collapses. If both can work as well as they did two days ago, Zimbabwe will be happy to see consistency at last.
The two main concerns for Russell Domingo after the defeat to Australia would have been the recurring problems: South Africa’s middle order and their death bowling. Neither may get the opportunity to show improvement in a fixture which could take on a completely different complexion to their previous one but if they do the spotlight will be on JP Duminy and David Miller to see whether they can turn starts into something more significant and Ryan McLaren who needs to regain the ability to bowl the yorker at the end.
Team news
It would be cruel to leave out any of the men who beat Australia on Sunday and although Zimbabwe have tinkered with their team in every match, they could go with the same XI. Barring a change in seamer, no-one’s place should be under threat.
Zimbabwe: (likely) 1 Sikandar Raza, 2 Tino Mawoyo, 3 Hamilton Masakadza, 4 Brendan Taylor (wk), 5 Sean Williams, 6 Malcolm Waller, 7 Elton Chigumbura (capt), 8 Prosper Utseya, 9 John Nyumbu, 10 Tendai Chatara, 11 Donald Tiripano
Had South Africa been 100% certain of their place in the final, they would have used this match for experimentation but they do not have that luxury. That will mean fielding their first-choice XI which, unless Morne Morkel’s shoulder injury flares up, an unchanged XI despite the long tail.
South Africa: (likely) 1 Hashim Amla, 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Faf du Plessis, 4 AB de Villiers (capt), 5 JP Duminy, 6 David Miller, 7 Ryan McLaren, 8 Dale Steyn, 9 Morne Morkel, 10 Aaron Phangiso, 11 Imran Tahir
Pitch and conditions
Strips are being reused and the one on which the final round-robin match will be played is certain to have featured in the tournament before. AB de Villiers has already described the surfaces as tired and Faf du Plessis said South Africa expect a sluggish and spinning pitch, which suggests another session of laboured run-scoring and low run-rates. At least there is less of a chance of any of the players suffering from heat-induced cramp. Temperatures in Harare have dipped from the high 20s into the low ones which should make for more comfortable conditions all round.
Stats and trivia
Prosper’s Utseya’s five-for the last time these teams met has made him his country’s highest wicket-taker against South Africa with 19 scalps, leapfrogging Heath Streak, who has 17.
Both Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers have three centuries against Zimbabwe while Brendan Taylor is the batsman with the most number of hundreds at Harare Sports Club – also three.
Quotes
“I think the guys know that they still have a job to do and I can’t see them growing any big heads before they have improved. I would like us to improve on our rankings I think that if we work hard, with the experience that these guys have, I am sure we can improve on that.”
Stephen Mangongo says his players are level-headed before their do-or-die match.
“We feel that Zimbabwe is a threat now. They play well in these conditions and the prepare wickets that suit them. We expect a slow-turner in the next match. We need to beat them now. I don’t think it’s time to rest players.”
Faf du Plessis said South Africa are planning to present their best-side to Zimbabwe for the final group stage match