The Arab Autumn

The third dimension of militant resistance is gaining credence in the Middle East

In the cold war era, it was a popular cliché that in the Middle East there could be no war without Egypt and no peace without Syria. It was a bipolar world where the globe was divided into super powers zones of influence. International issues were managed through a system of checks and balance and implied red lines were respected by both the super powers and their clients. The non-aligned world operated on the periphery, wielding a measure of moral authority but carrying little military or political weight. The UN was well regarded and it was generally headed by men of character and substance. The wars and peace in the Middle East were finely choreographed with pre-war settled end states. Nothing was left to chance. The world was in a state of strategic balance. However, in all situations the super powers ensured that Israel should always appear superior, dominant and invincible. With the emergence of US as the sole super power, Israeli arrogance and intransigence has increased manifold as potentially threatening Arab states like Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Syria have started crumbling and imploding one after another. It is a win-win situation for her as Israel stands unchallenged now and she is bent upon exploiting this advantage to the maximum. The US is unburdened by any constraints to placate the Arabs as no counter-weighing force like USSR exists any longer. China is not yet ready to fill in the blank. The world is fast moving into a state of disorder. The Arab threat to Israel lies in a ruinous heap of moral breakdown and political anarchy. The Gaza episode illustrates this moral decay in the most graphic visuals of cruelty without restraint, or any counter-check. With the failure of existing states to safeguard perceived Arab honour and interests, the third dimension of militant resistance is gaining credence in the Middle East. It is a historic David and Goliath conflict being played again. The specter of extremism morphing into a political reality is therefore likely to dominate this scene in the future. But surprisingly the extremism, instead of targeting Israel, is becoming malignant and has started eating the entrails of the Arab world’s decadent political systems. For three or four decades, Islamist fundamentalists have been challenging ruling elites and parties, but only which were secular in outlook, although they failed to break the status quo. In the past these dissenting Islamic forces were put down ruthlessly in Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Jordan. The Islamists were decimated, demoralised, dispersed and exiled.

Again, surprisingly, their core leadership found refuge in the western capitals in USA, UK, France and Germany, where they reorganised their resistance with impunity. Those days world powers, while supporting secular, autocratic and degenerating oligarchies, monarchies and one party socialist regimes, took care to keep the trump card of Islamists in hand to be used at an opportune time. They gave these Islamist dissidents time and resources to attract masses against the existing political systems. Travelling through the liberal Arab world of Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq as early as 1990s, one witnessed majority of young girls wearing hijab and the mosques increasingly being filled by young men. The change at the gross root level had commenced. The leaning towards visible manifestation of Islamic norms indicated a paradigm change in liberal societies of Asad and Hosni Mubarak. It was equally a symbol of disgust and defiance against the ruling cliques as well as a renewed emphasis on practicing Islamic teachings. The Arab Spring, therefore, flowered in the fertile fields of injustice, deprivation and oppression over a long period of time. It was never an issue of spontaneous combustion as the western media would have us believe. The Arab Spring was meticulously cultivated, engineered and timely operationalised as a game changer in an otherwise staid tyranny of elites. Its goal was equality, justice and democracy. But something went wrong on the way.

Somehow the popular sentiments of rebellion against decaying systems started perceiving Islamic movements, democratic or otherwise, as political substitutes. The popular vote generally got translated into Islamist victories in many Arab states, a result least acceptable to the west because of their anti-western stance and hostility towards Israel. Therefore, the chance to allow democratic principles to take root in Arab states appears almost forfeited. Democracy has become a charade and a tool of convenience to whip undesirable regimes. While democracy remained the preferred system, Hamas and Akhwan, who took power through the ballot, were denied their right to rule. As in Egypt, al Sisi type military regime has become the role model to be followed in the Arab world elsewhere.

Extremism has emerged as an ideology evoking nostalgia about the golden days of caliphates and glorious Muslim rule. Its vitality and relevance is overpowering.

Such uncertain, conflicting and hypocritical environment was bound to give rise to extremism, militancy and anarchy. Denial of power after electoral success led to political and military defiance, which has fully exploited this void and expanded into a cross border movement to dismantle nation states with a vengeance. It is an ideology in motion. In the past they had only challenged non-representative and minority based seculars ideologies but now along with threatening the regimes, they are aiming at destroying those states which have deep fault lines, thereby redrawing their political maps on sectarian and ethnic lines. It was in 1992 in Damascus that then Palestinian ambassador to Syria, an old Alfatah war horse, had hypothesised that one day the entire spectrum of Islamic states will start self-dividing and imploding. He charted in sufficient detail the future sub-divisions where major states were physically carved up showing completely changed political landscape, based on secular-religious, economic (essentially oil and gas), tribal-ethnic, sectarian-ideological and historical factors. Only what he could not divine at that point in time was the ascent of extremism as the main catalyst for change.

Extremism has emerged as an ideology evoking nostalgia about the golden days of caliphates and glorious Muslim rule. Its vitality and relevance is overpowering. The ongoing conflict in Gaza bears testimony to its resilience. This phenomenon is likely to grow. Strategically, this movement is posing threats to the so called liberal and moderate Arab world. From Gaza through the Sinai peninsula, joining hands with Akhwan of Morsi, it will spread towards mainland Egypt. In Iraq and Syria, from a superior central position it is already threatening multiple players. Islamic state (IS) is holding a large tract of land in Syria and Iraq, almost the size of Jordan, which is generally extremely barren and sparsely populated historically called Badia al Sham or the Syrian Desert. The caliphate of IS has suspicious origins with its creation being attributed to the covert support of US and Israel. Hence the US decision to limit her advance and expansion through aerial engagements is an eye wash. It is essentially trying to keep the independent Kurdistan movement alive as well as securing and maintaining hold on oil reserves badly needed by the Pacific rim economic giants. Ultimately the de facto division of Iraq into three zones ie Shi’a, IS and Kurdistan will be formalised and internationally recognised. ISIS/IS is moving like a tsunami threatening Turkey, Jordan, Gulf-states and Saudi Arabia, after consolidating in Syria-Iraq. IS is being sponsored to spread anarchy. The masses are being used as canon fodder only.

Out of all these oil rich states, Saudi Arabia seems more exposed and threatened on the shores of this sea-change. Although Saudi Arabia has the capacity to preempt and act as a bulwark of resistance to IS. They have efficient and strong armed forces and national guards. Their intelligence and law enforcement agencies are pervasive, well-equipped and quick in response. The second generation princes are in effective operational control of the state machinery. If they can control their moral, ideological and religious environment from falling prey to IS ideology they are capable of playing a lead role against extremism in the region. They are simultaneously looking towards Egypt and Pakistan to bolster their defenses. They have moved fifty thousand troops towards borders with Iraq. But how one fights an ideology which was sponsored originally by them to contain Iran and Shi’a rule in Iraq and Syria is an important caveat. It is a delicate task keeping these ideologues away from Saudi frontiers as they may find support from affluent puritans within the Saudi society. Its vulnerability therefore lies within.

The Arab states, through externally imposed wars and inner dissensions from Morroco to Iraq, are politically badly fractured and physically damaged. With oil losing its value in favour of shale gas and other alternatives during coming decades, the oil rich Arab states will hardly be able to rebuild their past glory. The examples are Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Kuwait, where economy and development have been setback by decades. Balkanised into petty fiefdoms and zones of influence, they have lost their weightage and relevance globally. Their infrastructure and symbols of development lie in ruins. Breathing under the shadow of Israeli nuclear overhang and strong military presence they are on borrowed time. The prevalent worst case scenario was inconceivable a few years back. In many Arab states, society is regressing into a tribal and sectarian mode and attitude of medieval times. The Arab Spring is fast lapsing into a long lasting autumn of disenchantment. Militancy and military rule have again occupied the centre stage in the Middle East as anarchy reigns supreme. Democracy has been relegated to the sidelines.