The Mulla Fazlullah reminder

Going, maybe, but not quite gone!

So Mullah Fazlullah suddenly goes active and it turns out, for one thing, that he’s not dead (contrary to rumours doing the rounds a few days ago), and also that Professor Ajmal Khan’s release was part of a prisoner exchange program. Now, such calculated give-and-take is part of every counterinsurgency (COIN) program, but it also serves to remind that the enemy, however degraded, remains strong enough to matter. That is why, as stressed earlier in this space, the initial success of Zarb-e-Azb should not give way to complacency. And while such manoeuvres might be standard practice, or something close to it, they can also become a double edged sword. They set a precedent, and as the TTP leader pointed out, the rebellion will now try and kidnap more influential people to bargain for their captured.

No doubt the military has not restricted its NW operation specific attention to the tribal area. And one reason reprisal attacks in cities did not materialise – definitely not to the degree anticipated – must have been the agencies being ahead of the curve and pre-empting some of the blowback. Indeed, there were reports prior to the operation of a number of sleeper cells, especially in the border belt between Sindh from Punjab, being taken out. But now the cities will matter more than before.

If repeated wars and insurgencies in the AfPak theatre have taught us anything, it is that an initial sweep invariably dislodges militants from their strongholds. But no sooner than the victor feels confident, sustained guerrilla campaigns are initiated. This was part of the core training of the mujahideen of the Soviet jihad, and these lessons also rubbed on to the Arab contingent, which later evolved into al Qaeda, etc, and funded the TTP conglomerate that brought unprecedented war and suffering to Pakistan. And if there is a silver lining in this tragedy of proxies first straining on the leash and then turning on their masters, it is that the forces have a pretty good idea of the enemy’s method of operations. Therefore it is expected that the military will keep the pressure all the way to the end. For now, the TTP might be on the run, but it is far from being finished.