This time in Afghanistan
Unfortunately, unless things change dramatically very soon, Abdullah Abdullah pulling out of the Afghan election audit can mean little except tragic consequences for the country and the region. Settling this election was always going to be difficult, and now that John Kerry’s stiff warning – that there will be no dollars unless the audit is agreed to – seems petering out, there is a very small window for diplomacy before another factional confrontation descends upon Kabul. The Americans, according to news reports, were on the phone with Abdullah as soon as they heard of his pullout, but it is difficult to see what they can achieve through this form of diplomacy. Abdullah has clearly had it with the audit, and does not see the process granting him legitimacy.
And while Ghani seems set to win, it is his good offices that must initiate and ensure a sort of working relationship with Abdullah. Those with longish memories will remember how upset Abdullah was after the previous election, which he accused Karzai of practically stealing from him. Yet instead of beginning a planned agitation he sat back to fight another day. That is why this outcome, which he vehemently disputes, must have unnerved him that much more. And most observers agree that the election, especially the last cycle, was an outright steal. So Ghani must now engineer a thaw of sorts, otherwise factional friction will be the least of his new government’s problems; there will be ethnic strife, sectarian blood feud, political factionalisation, etc.
And there’s the Taliban. The latest news is that the insurgency is not gaining ground and influence just in the south – Kandahar and its neighbouring areas that make the Pashtuns’ heartland – but has also gained momentum in the north. That means their penetration is on the rise, and with the Americans leaving shortly, a splintered Afghan polity will simply not be able to control their advance. The Americans will also worry about the security arrangement that hangs in the balance till an undisputed government is formed. It is in the favour of all parties concerned, especially the two contenders, to bring sanity to the presidential election result.
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