The BJP fingerprint
Unfortunately, India-Pakistan tensions are playing out pretty much the way skeptics figured they would under Modi’s government. There were initial hints of the prospect of a mutually agreeable thaw. But they were brushed away pretty much when Nawaz was still in Delhi – for Modi’s inauguration – and the Indian foreign office pulled an unexpected card out of its sleeve, and gave a pretty aggressive, and unscheduled, explanation of its priorities and concerns about Pakistan. And a fair deal of posturing later, repeated ceasefire violations by Indian Border Security Forces across the line of control and working boundary are indicative of a belligerence bordering on provoking a broader fight, and unless saner minds prevail, things might move farther than either side can afford at present.
There is an urgent need for greater interaction between the two governments not only to investigate which elements are to blame for the confrontation, but also to make sure such incidents are not repeated. In this respect, it was unwise of the Indian government to call of foreign secretary talks, especially for an exercise Pakistan not only regularly indulges in, but has also been facilitated by India over the years. The Pakistani proposal of greater DGMO level interaction, too, should be taken more seriously now. Unless there is a measured de-escalation, things will only get worse, and the Indian public will also suffer because of extremist ideals of some politicians.
Significantly, it is not just the borders that Indian excesses are restricted to. Finally, the Pakistani side has woken up to the seriousness of Indian violation of the Indus Water Treaty. Islamabad’s concerns regarding the Kishanganga and four other dams on the Chenab have been relayed to New Dehli. Unless checked now, India can toggle Pakistan’s water supply in clear violation of the Treaty, with the prospect of reducing required discharges especially in times of political strain. The international community must also take note of this violation, and urge the Indians to abide by past treaties, or risk an international fallout. It is in the interest of both Pakistan and India to forge a partnership that looks ahead instead of raising issues from a bygone era.