Another step closer to neo Ottamanism
Recep Erdogan’s last year as Turkey’s prime minister gave him some nightmares – Taksim square protests, corruption allegations, lira nosedive, Syria backfire, etc – but he was never in any doubt of capping his illustrious decade as PM by becoming president. And he remains the most powerful, and successful, politician in Turkey since Kamal Ataturk carved the modern republic out of the ruins of the Ottoman Empire. He led his Truth and Justice Party (AKP) to three election victories, attracted record foreign investment, engineered Turkey’s tiger economy that grew threefold under his watch, and even ended the PKK insurgency in Anatolia. His party’s achievements were all the more profound since, being Islamists, they had to continuously outmanoeuvre the secular Kemalist elite, which has dominated politics and the military for decades.
Yet, over time, Erdogan has been accused of standing many policies that earned him political mileage on their heads. His zero-problems-with-neighbours went out the window when he tried to punch above his weight in the Arab Spring, and completely miscalculated on Syria. In siding with the Saudis, he even backed and funded al Qaeda rebels who have killed thousands and threaten overrunning Iraq and Syria. His stock market miracle, too, was too dependent on hot money, and the more Turkey got isolated, especially after rioting in the capital last summer, the more foreign investment fled and the lira plummeted. Inflation, too, has skyrocketed, with Erdogan hawking over monetary policy and insisting interest rates be kept low; a move that politically accommodated his campaign but hurt the economy very deeply. Turkey’s current account deficit, now at eight per cent, is among the highest in the world.
It is little surprise, therefore, that the Mr Market – the ultimate arbiter of emerging market politics – was not too impressed by Erdogan’s presidential victory. Turkish stocks closed lowest in a month since there was practically no indication that this new chapter would improve the country’s credit profile. The currency dropped as well, paring earlier gains. Society is also more fragmented than before, as the former prime minister grew increasingly paranoid of any form of dissent, targeting journalists critical of his policies and arresting dozens of generals accused of planning military takeovers. His rise to the presidency is set to start a new chapter for Turkey, yet he will have to rein in his neo Ottoman streak, which projects Erdogan pasha at the top of a resurgent empire.