PTI knows there is no constitutional or legal way to remove the government
Events can unfold in two different ways depending on whether or not the PML-N and PTI manage to reach an understanding in the next few days. The hectic activity undertaken by a number of politicians has led both parties to at least rethink their respective extremes. The PML-N, whose ministers often pooh-poohed Imran Khan’s march and issued provocative statements on almost a daily basis, finally seems to be weighing the outcome of the confrontation. This is indicated by Nawaz Sharif’s meetings with a large number of politicians during the last few days over how to resolve the confrontation. Meanwhile Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has said he is willing to go to Imran Khan to resolve the differences.
Attempts by the PML-N government to crack down on motorbikes of PTI activists, harassment of PTI workers, pressure on private transporters to deny buses for the march and the artificially engineered shortages of petroleum indicate the government is still focused on administrative measures to deal with the protest. The party has yet to fully realise that it would be the biggest loser if things go out of control.
The PTI knows there is no constitutional or legal way to remove the government. The prime minister can be sent home only through a no confidence vote or when his five year term is over. PTI leaders have been asked a number of times during TV appearances how they would remove the prime minister if he refused to resign. Will they ask the army to step in? Everyone has invariably dodged the issue, indirectly conceding that he has no answer to the question. What is more, the PTI’s real problem is the national assembly, where it is in minority and therefore resignation by Nawaz Sharif does not help it. The PTI also knows it is taking a solo flight with no opposition party standing by its side, not even Jamaat-e-Islami, its major coalition partner. All these questions will crop up at the party leadership’s meeting on August 10 where it is supposed to finalise its response to all these issues.
The PML-N-PTI confrontation is taking place at a time when the federal government’s relations with the army are far from cordial. During the last fourteen months several issues have caused frictions between the two. These include Musharraf’s trial, government’s insistence on peace talks with the militants, the Geo affair and Nawaz Sharif’s quest of friendly relations with India.
Irrespective of its heroics the PTI might go back on its rejection of the election results provided it is assured of mid-term elections. After all it needs electoral reforms and a commonly agreed election commission for the next polls. With the PML-N led by politicians with big egos and Imran Khan motivated by sheer obstinacy it would be hard to predict whether the two sides will succeed in reaching a compromise instead of pulling down the entire edifice over their heads and be buried under its rubble.
The PML-N-PTI confrontation is taking place at a time when the federal government’s relations with the army are far from cordial. During the last fourteen months several issues have caused frictions between the two. These include Musharraf’s trial, government’s insistence on peace talks with the militants, the Geo affair and Nawaz Sharif’s quest of friendly relations with India.
As things stand despite all the administrative measures taken to deter the PTI by the Punjab and federal governments the party will go ahead with its protest march on August 14. The protest in itself will not harm the government. What will is the sit in, in case it goes on for a number of days.
The immediate effect of the sit in by hundreds of thousands of activists would be the shutdown of the government. Islamabad houses all the offices of the federal government. It is through these offices that various federal ministries convey their decisions to related departments and ensure their implementation. The offices are manned by thousands of civil servants and office workers who come daily from various parts of the city and adjoining Rawalpindi. With crowds clogging incoming roads it will not be possible for them to reach their work place. The sit in will disrupt the work of some of the crucial ministries for a number of days.
In case of Imran Khan reaching anywhere near the target of a million marchers the prime minister and other members of the cabinet may not be able to come out of their residences. The capital city markets might have to close down causing hardships for the residents.
The immediate effect of the sit in by hundreds of thousands of activists would be the shutdown of the government. Islamabad houses all the offices of the federal government. It is through these offices that various federal ministries convey their decisions to related departments and ensure their implementation. The offices are manned by thousands of civil servants and office workers who come daily from various parts of the city and adjoining Rawalpindi.
The administration would then be left with no option but to disperse the protestors by force. It might soon find baton charges by police, water cannons, and rubber bullets inadequate to achieve the aim. Meanwhile the PTI parliamentarians would announce their resignations. This along with the Islamabad crackdown may lead to protests in other cities also.
The clock will then start ticking on the government. It would be accused by the ultimate referees who are already unhappy with it of being responsible for social unrest, causing haemorrhage to the economy and creating hurdles in the conduct of the military Operations in North Waziristan Agency.
The referees could take recourse to one of the two options then. They could tell the prime minister to announce fresh polls preceded by a caretaker set up of their choice. They could alternately impose martial law.
The sound of the approaching military boots is being heard as far as Washington. This explains why the Obama administration thought it necessary to publicly reiterate it stance that it would stay neutral if the threatened agitation in the country leads to a government change through “constitutional means”, but would be opposed to a coup.
This must not be interpreted by the PML-N as a support from the US. Washington in the long run invariably reconciles with whosoever is in power, be it the military or the civilians. The ruling party and the PTI have to find a way out with the help of the parties in the opposition at the earliest if they are keen to ensure the continuation of the system.
Comments are closed.