Another war begins

What follows may make Zarb-e-azb look easy

“I will believe it’s a comprehensive operation if I see the authorities arrest heads of militant organisations in Punjab, for a start”, Dr Ayesha Siddiqua roared at me through the phone recently, when I asked for her comments on Zarb-e-azb. But while she represents a segment of society that has long been skeptical about the military’s association with militant groups, even those that count the NW operation as a significant step ahead are unclear about what might follow.

The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan brought many changes to Pakistan, of which the strategic depth doctrine was a prominent politico-military manifestation. But it also triggered a cultural and social transformation. The centre-right politics of the Zia era, the jihad-centric makeover of the military, and particularly the Islamisation of the academia, altered the national narrative forever.

Undoing the damage risks setting off a chain reaction that reaches far beyond Pakistan. Education reforms, particularly regarding madressas, will upset right-wingers, most of whom have already threatened violent reactions to such an ‘attack on Islam’.

An unsettling spillover of the Afghan adventure was clearly visible by the time the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. They had brought peace to the country, the civil war had ended, but they also harmed their society deeply. Political and social requirements were in conflict. And in time, the Taliban’s intolerance of contrary opinions – be they from individuals, political factions, or other countries – would bring far more misery to Afghans, and others, than the long years of Soviet occupation or civil war. The mujahideen had served their purpose well in the old days, but their continued presence, and growing power, stood the entire project on its head. Surely this is not what they were created for.

This trend became more powerful in the post-9/11 years, particularly in Pakistan. With a strong central government, working institutions, and a formidable military, Pakistan was a world removed from Afghanistan’s crumbling structures. Yet it struggled with a strengthening insurgency, and the army had to be involved in active civil war in the north, of which Zarb-e-azb is the latest chapter. And even when the tribal area is completely secured, the war will not end. It will need to be fought on numerous fronts, and many battles will trigger further armed conflict.

Since Zia’s days, society has shifted so far to the right that Pakistan is now a very different country. Decades of academic indoctrination and state support for Islamist militias – for this and that jihad – have created a general mindset that must also be countered. How the clergy can still command blind public support, even when it clearly defies state and religious laws, became apparent after the lal masjid incident. Right wing religious clerics have long exploited the periphery’s confusion about blurred lines between orthodox and militant Islam. The military, too, is confused about its new assignment, and took a long time adjusting to the reality that leveraging religion to pursue strategic goals had backfired badly.

Since Zia’s days, society has shifted so far to the right that Pakistan is now a very different country. Decades of academic indoctrination and state support for Islamist militias – for this and that jihad – have created a general mindset that must also be countered.

But undoing the damage risks setting off a chain reaction that reaches far beyond Pakistan. Education reforms, particularly regarding madressas, will upset right-wingers, most of whom have already threatened violent reactions to such an ‘attack on Islam’. It will also require upsetting crucial foreign relations and asking the Saudis to stop their funding and arming of militant proxies. Already their obsession with Wahabi proxies has brought needless suffering to millions in the Middle East.

And most importantly, as Dr Siddiqa rightly pointed out, the state will need to finally wind up its jaishes and lashkars. That, too, will set off a violent anti-state, and anti-sectarian minority, blood feud. But if the NW operation is the extent of the war against terrorism, then the Taliban will rise again, this time from southern Punjab, not North Waziristan. The choice, simply, is between taking the bull by the horns or remaining a country marked by state support for militancy, sectarian genocide, acid throwing on women in the name of Islam, etc. The narrative the military chooses now will define the Pakistan of tomorrow.