Did TTP commanders leave before or after the operation began?
North Waziristan Agency, long described as the hub of international terrorism, provided sanctuary to almost all militant networks including TTP, al Qaeda, Haqqanis, and Uzbek, Chechen and Uighur terrorist groups. The TTP leadership frequently held its meetings here and it was in NWA that Hakimullah Mehsud was discovered by the US and killed in a drone attack. A little before the initiation of the ongoing operation Mullah Fazlullah was also reported to have visited the Agency. As DG ISPR pointed out soon after the start of the military operation “terrorists of all kinds, involved in different activities from Fata to Karachi, are based in North Waziristan. They include local and foreign militants, including Uzbeks and Chechens. Now, it is up to them whether they surrender or fight,” He also said most of the terrorist leaders were considered to be still in NWA.
That no high profile terrorist leader was arrested or killed in North Waziristan has given rise to questions. How did the entire TTP leadership manage to disappear into thin air? Besides the Al Qaeda and Haqqani network leaders, there is also no clue to the TTP leaders. Leaving aside those presently operating from Kunar and Nuristan, these include Sheikh Khalid Haqqani, Qari Shakeel Ahmed Haqqani, Shahidullah Shahid, Maulvi Abu Bakr, Hafiz Saeed of Orakzai, Adnan Rashid, TTP’s chief justice Qazi Hammad and editor of the TTP’s magazine Maulana Saleh Qassam.
Asked days after the beginning of the operation whether there was a possibility that terrorist leaders might have escaped to Afghanistan before the launch of the operation, the ISPR chief said it was possible a few of them had taken refuge on the Afghan side, but most of them were still in the targeted area as “the terrorists could not anticipate the launch of the operation.”
He said all exits had been sealed after the operation. “We have surrounded the entire agency and sealed the 180km border with Afghanistan, as well as the boundary with South Waziristan, making it impossible for terrorists to escape.”
Subsequently a house to house search was conducted in Miranshah and other towns and villages cleared by the army. There was however no word about the senior militant leaders.
Did they manage to escape before the operation started or after? The army has no answer. GOC Miranshah, Maj Gen Zafarullah Khan, has expressed surprise over the miraculous disappearance.
That no high profile terrorist leader was arrested or killed in North Waziristan has given rise to questions. How did the entire TTP leadership manage to disappear into thin air?
“It will be a conjecture on my part because there is nothing to quantify my answer whether they left or they did not leave before the operation or during the operation but the fact of the matter is, the leadership at the moment, where we have carried out operation is not present, if they were we would have apprehended them,”
Despite claims that Zarb e Azb was a surprise operation, there is a lot to suggest that it was not. After the failure of talks with the TTP, the option of an operation was being widely discussed. That it continued to be delayed after the failure of talks was the real surprise. As Maj Gen Zafar notes many people took advantage of the ensuing confusion following the failure of the peace talks with the militants and discussion on launching the military operation.
There are four questions regarding the disappearance. Did the militant leadership slip over the border into Afghanistan after the offensive started? Did it take shelter deeper into the mountains? Did it cross over to Kurram Agency via Afghanistan? Or is it cooling its heels in some of the big cities of Pakistan where the militant networks have sleeper cells?
The army’s inability to capture or take out the terrorist leadership will cause two problems. One, the escape of virtually the entire TTP high command would boost the morale of the terrorists. Al-Qaeda continued to expand despite the fall of the Taliban regime in Kabul and the consequent loss of sanctuaries because Osama bin Laden and al- Zawahiri managed to give the slip to the US forces. In Pakistan the TTP continued to flourish despite the loss of South Waziristan and Swat because leaders like Hakimullah Mehsud and Fazlullah managed to escape the army’s dragnet.
Second, it is likely to create suspicions among countries Pakistan is keen to work with. Remember General Joseph Dunford’s cryptic remark, “They had some success against the Pakistani Taliban and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in North Waziristan from the best that we can tell, but they certainly had less success against the Haqqani Network and others that we would have wanted to see”.
Reporting about the operation on June 15 the Guardian doubted it was going to be indiscriminate. “Some observers remain sceptical despite Sunday’s announcement. They argue the Haqqani Network and other militant groups regarded as useful allies are likely to be left untouched by the operation or will simply move into unsecured parts of western Afghanistan”. Similar views have been expressed by an Afghan official.
Another controversy relates to allegations of civilian casualties. These were first reported by journalist Sailab Mehsud in Dawn early this month. Mehsud claimed he had made “clandestine trips” to Mirali and Miranshah and was present in Dattakhel on June 15 when the operation started.
Another controversy relates to allegations of civilian casualties. These were first reported by journalist Sailab Mehsud in Dawn early this month. Mehsud claimed he had made “clandestine trips” to Mirali and Miranshah and was present in Dattakhel on June 15 when the operation started. Mehsud raised two issues. One, the operation was launched without informing the population. Two, it led to civilian casualties. The report was generally ignored as it was not corroborated by any other source.
On Wednesday national newspapers carried a report about bombardment by air-force jets in Shawal Valley on July 16 that corroborated the two points raised by Mehsud, According to the report, multiple accounts by residents indicated 37 civilians were killed in the attack, including 20 women and 10 children.
One of the tribesmen who lost family members maintained that his village was never informed it would be a target. “In the meetings with military and civil officials, we had been assured to stay home as our areas were declared safe and free from militant control”, he said, adding that he had conveyed the same message to the local population and had forbidden them from leaving.
One can understand the constraints under which the army is conducting the operations. But it has to be extra careful if it is to achieve the aim of ridding the country of terrorists of all hues and colours.
Federal Minister Abdul Qadir Baloch has denied that civilians were killed in the strike. As media reporters are not allowed access to the area under operation, one person’s account is as good as that of another. The absence of oversight can provide currency to half truths and rumours. These can create doubts about the army’s claims and even cause unrest among the IDPs. To avoid this, the Shawal deaths need a transparent probe.
