Zardari’s game plan

He wants to be back in power and he has an elaborate plan to achieve his objective

Politics is usually compared with a game of chess in which each player is planning moves whose objective is to checkmate the opponent. Mr Asif Ali Zardari is considered one of the master players of political chessboard and knows how to manipulate others to achieve his objectives. It will be foolhardy to believe that he has been out of the game since PPP lost last elections to the PML-N as well as his presidential position. So what has been Mr Zardari up to? Here are my observations of what he has been doing to regain political power.

Mr Zardari knows well that there are two conditions under which PPP has a better chance of gaining parliamentary majority. One when they become political shaheed. In 2008 PPP won majority as the nation sympathised with them because of the assassination of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto. Mr Zardari pronounced Pakistan khapay and that statement earned them enough goodwill to form the government and made him the president of the country. Second condition under which PPP can come to power is when there is a military rule and they become champions of democracy.

When Dr Tahirul Qadri initiated his long march in January 2013, a lot of people were asking who could be behind it. This time around when Dr Qadri is promoting a revolution the same question is asked again. I think the most probable person behind both those moves is Mr Zardari because there is a connection between Mr Zardari and Dr Tahirul Qadri. First connection is that Benazir Bhutto was a life member of Minhajul Quran and it is unlikely that Mr Zardari did not interacted with Dr Qadri. It is interesting that Dr Qadri is meeting with every opposition politician except Mr Zardari. Why? Because in my view it will establish a direct link between them. Second connection is that some cabinet members of Mr Zulfikar Ali Bhutto are advising Dr Tahirul Qadri on his political moves. Third connection is that according to estimates around 550 million rupees were spent on the first march and similar estimates are being projected for the upcoming revolution. There are only few politicians who have deep enough pockets to fund it themselves or through their friends.

The objective of the first long march of Dr Qadri was to make PPP political shaheed. But neither opposition nor military establishment took any interest in it. Finally Dr Qadri had to sign a deal in his warm container and go back to his adopted homeland Canada. The objective of the second coming is to derail the whole system.

So what is the whole plan of Mr Zardari? First move was made when in a speech he mentioned that the cat who drank the milk should not be allowed to run away, even though he was the one who sent the cat out with a guard of honour to become president himself. The objective of the speech was to induce Nawaz Sharif to pursue the case against General Pervez Musharraf which could create tension between the civilians and the military. Second move was to activate Dr Tahirul Qadri again in the name of revolution to derail the system. To help achieve this objective old friend Sheikh Rashid, who was a frequent guest at the presidency, was attached with Dr Qadri with an objective to create perception that there was growing tension with military and to bring PTI into the grand alliance. The chances of Dr Qadri’s revolution’s success without PTI’s cooperation were very small.

I along with many others had a small role to play to keep PTI away from it despite significant pressure on Imran Khan. There are still efforts made to bring the two together. PTI’s refusal to join the revolution was a major setback for Mr Zardari and the main reason for Dr Qadri’s hesitation to announce the date of the revolution. Now Mr Zardari had to initiate plan B which was to support PTI position on election audit. If Mr Zardari is so keen on transparency in the last election, then why doesn’t he come forward to seek audit of four constituencies in Sindh including the one won by Ms Faryal Talpur to give credibility to it? Now his moves seem to aim at inducing PTI to seek mid-term election and if this objective is achieved then using Dr Qadri to demand a complete overhaul of the system before next elections are held through his revolution. As soon as the interim government accepts this demands, Mr Zadari will create the next MRD and become its leader to present himself as the champion of democracy. This can allow PPP to once again emerge as a leading party.

PPP considers PTI as a serious threat to its survival. By using PTI to derail the system, it will lose goodwill of the people just like Tehreek-e-Istiqlal did in 1977. Interim government will be most likely supported by military establishment which will provide good incentive to form the next MRD for restoration of democracy.

In all this scenario there is one thing Mr Zardari does not realise which is that whatever he does is not politics but manipulation. Politics is about adopting an ideology and then securing people’s mandate for it. Manipulations is about seeking personal power through exploiting weaknesses of the other stakeholders. Almost all political parties in Pakistan practice manipulation but Mr Zardari is a pioneer of it. People of Pakistan are tired of manipulation and want to support parties that engage in constructive politics.

I am not suggesting that Mr Zardari is the only one engaged in a political chess game. Friends of Musharraf, like Mr Tahir Khan of Interflow is engaged in their own game plan along with Mr Ahmed Raza Kasuri. Mr Tahir khan has hired Dr Shahid Masood to provide daily dose of propaganda through his solo TV programme. Similarly Mr Najam Sethi is engaged in doing propaganda on behalf of the government.

We would know in the next few weeks what happens on the political front. But PTI will be earning goodwill of the people if they fully participate in the electoral reforms committee. PTI should also focus on improving governance in KP and hold local government election there as soon as possible. PTI is still an organisationally weak party and improving its structure can help them participate better in the next elections.

The nation will experience manipulation as long as political parties remain family enterprise or fan clubs. For stable politics to emerge political parties have to become institutions and that should be made part of electoral reforms package. Failure to achieve this objective will keep politics driven by personal ambitions and clash of egos.