Actions have consequences
One of the many novelties of Israel’s push into Gaza this time could be ruling out future talks with the Palestinians altogether. Never mind Hamas’s scattered leadership – still undecided about its permanent base of operations – Fatah, too, is unlikely to talk once this particular offensive subsides, whenever that will be. President Abbas is not only old and senile, but irrelevant, even among Fatah ranks. They couldn’t have been much worse even without the talks, say his lieutenants, as what they see around them forces many to convert to Hamas’s ‘direct confrontation’ methodology.
This war has been particularly cruel, even by Israeli standards. Yet the world watches and save few words of concern, precious little comes from western leaders. Just the other day Obama phoned Netanyahu, accepting Israel’s right to defend itself, just reminding him to keep civilian casualties low. How seriously Bibi took that advice was clear in the next morning’s headlines. And nobody needs a reminder about how seriously world leaders take the millions that march against their senseless wars. Those who marched against the Iraq war, for example, failed to have their voices heard where it mattered. And when millions more marched against Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon in the ’06 war with Hezbollah, Condi Rice justified the killing of hundreds, calling it “the birth pangs of a new Middle East”. And little will change as millions take to the streets again, in London, New York, Amsterdam, Paris, etc. They do not matter in the powerhouses of international democracy.
There’s a lesson in this for Hamas, too. As international leaders squarely put the blame on it, Meshal and friends will realise that partly why nobody is coming to their aid is because they abandoned friends who sheltered and armed them for decades when they ditched the Asad regime in favour of its old patron, the Brotherhood. And when neither GCC, nor Egypt, nor Turkey, for that matter, were willing to move beyond status quo with Israel, Hamas found itself in a very difficult position. There was friction, and fights, according to popular Arab media. That does not mean that Hamas’s isolation is justified, or the blood of thousands of Palestinians should pass as routine. Western leaders will face problems of their own as discontent among their own people snowballs. It is in nobody’s interest to support Israel and punish Hamas at this moment.
