And the threat of unsettling Track II diplomacy
The establishments of Pakistan and India are not friends, a fact not lost on Nawaz Sharif when he offended part of his main constituency – deobandi clergy –by his soft election stance towards New Delhi. And it was definitely not lost on Narendra Modi when he invited Nawaz for his swearing in. He, on the other hand, has very few soft spots, if any, for Pakistan. Yet he promised economic prudence all along his campaign, and has a trading lobby that wouldn’t mind some business with the neighbour, just like Nawaz’s other main vote bank – industrialists/businessmen – are happy at the prospect of trade, at least. So the Track II was initiated out of necessity, even if history has taught, repeatedly, that it is rarely successful.
Perhaps such diplomacy lacks initiative because crafty career bureaucrats on both sides know only too well that sooner rather than later establishments will stir up trouble again; always keeping the pot boiling. And if for once it was not cross-LoC shelling, this time the Sialkot border has become cause for friction. Apparently mortar fire and shelling was exchanged, with each side blaming the other for starting hostilities. The Indians even claim losing a border guard. Usually, following such disputed incidents, the Indian electronic media is far more belligerent, even hysterical, than its Pakistani counterpart. Needless to say, such passions need reining in on both sides while thorough investigations are conducted. And the guilty party must be held accountable.
There was a time not long ago, in the Musharraf years, when Track II did make impressive headway. Former foreign minister Khursheed Kasuri used to tell of three years of backdoor diplomacy before it seemed, for a brief moment, that some progress might finally be possible on contentious issues. But those days are long gone, and in hindsight, it is little surprise that the optimism faded faster than it developed. Pakistan and India have long been locked in stalemate, a deadlock that grew all the way to the nuclear deterrence stage. In such an impasse, especially, such loss of life is wasteful and needless; no laurels are won, no purpose served.
Both Islamabad and New Delhi must realise that the subcontinent is undergoing a transformation. A loud political shift to the right, in both countries, has coincided with the existential need of thriving, open economies. At the same time there is a tug of war between regressive and reformist forces in both countries. And unless there is a political metamorphosis to accompany this change, it, too, will end up doing more harm than good. History has placed a huge burden on Nawaz and Modi. Time will judge, soon, if they are up to the task.
