Losing the plot

The present political imbroglio has a sense of déjà vu about it

Is the ruling PML-N government losing the plot, thanks to its abysmal performance on the political front?

Only a few weeks ago it seemed that Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif had it all sorted out. They probably reckoned that with the opposition divided, the government would be able to effectively cope with Imran Khan’s threatened 14 August tsunami.

But Asif Zardari, sitting here in London, has thrown a spanner in the works. Displaying his now widely accepted political savvy he has bowled a reverse swing to the Sharifs.

Exhorting Nawaz Sharif to behave like “wazir-e-azam” (prime minister) rather than Mughal-e-azam (Mughal king), he has come in support of Imran Khan’s demand for recount in four constituencies. The PPP co-chairperson’s statement could be construed as mere hubris. But for the PML-N to ignore it would be, ultimately, at its own peril.

In the light of conciliatory gestures from the PPP it was being widely assumed that the country’s biggest opposition party would continue to play the role of a ‘friendly opposition’. Unlike his brother Shahbaz Sharif avoiding to receive Zardari when he was president, Nawaz Sharif is warmly welcomed and given proper protocol by the Sindh chief minister on his forays to the province.

Nonetheless, behind the façade of cordiality a storm was brewing that was manifested in the former president’s acerbic statement. The PPP has some genuine grievances in Sindh. The appointment of the IG against the wishes of the provincial government proved to be the last straw.

Putting the blame for the Taliban attack on Karachi airport on the Sindh administration by the interior minister did not help matters. Another bone of contention has been release of funds to Sindh government for some projects it deems important for the province.

A super powerful bureaucrat having the ears of the prime minister buttressed by some hawkish ministers is blamed by the PPP for playing an obstructionist role.

A super powerful bureaucrat having the ears of the prime minister buttressed by some hawkish ministers is blamed by the PPP for playing an obstructionist role. The bottom line is that perfectly cordial relations between the PML-N and the PPP have soured, hopefully not inexorably.

In the end analysis it just might be pressure tactics by the PPP to extract its pound of flesh when the government seems beleaguered and vulnerable. The saving grace is that it is still paying lip service to election reforms within the parliament rather than supporting moves to oust the government through street agitation.

However the government should not rule out the possibility of a grand opposition alliance being formed for the sole purpose of removing it. Despite tensions and differences of approach between Tahirul Qadri’s PAT and PTI, some politicians and other important actors are assiduously working behind the scenes to stitch an alliance on a minimum agenda, (read to oust the Sharifs).

The paramount problem being faced by disparate political forces is the absence of a green signal from the ubiquitous establishment. It is being naively assumed that the present ISI dispensation would like to see the back of the Sharifs.

However despite real or perceived tensions between the civilian and military leadership, the relationship to the extent of optics has perceptibly improved. Nawaz Sharif’s recent foray to the GHQ (General Headquarters) is a manifestation of the fact that presently ongoing (Zarb-e-Azb) operation and its fallout is the primary concern of the military and its intelligence apparatus.

The absence of a green signal could frustrate the rump of the opposition bent upon agitating on the streets. During this interregnum the PPP would perhaps prefer to sit on the fence but at the same time keep on raising the ante. In the end analysis it would prefer to settle for midterm polls rather than piggybacking on Imran Khan and TUQ’s street power.

But the Khan still remains the wild card in the pack. He wants a complete re-audit of the elections. According to his twisted logic if there could be a complete recount in Afghanistan, why not in Pakistan?

Sounds nice. May 11, 2013, elections might be flawed but they were not entirely fraudulent as is being alleged in Afghanistan by the losing presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah.

The paramount problem being faced by disparate political forces is the absence of a green signal from the ubiquitous establishment.

Just because the great Khan could not make it to be the prime minister does not mean that the whole democratic dispensation should be turned topsy-turvy. PTI is ruling in KP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province), the PPP in Sindh, the PML-N at the federal level and in Punjab, while the nationalists are ruling the roost in Balochistan.

Not a bad recipe for a stable democratic dispensation provided the protagonists are willing to accommodate each other. But here lies the rub. Despite Imran and some of his out of job stalwarts showing undue haste to enter the corridors of power in Islamabad through agitation, the Sharifs’ stubbornly imperious attitude persists.

Unfortunately the government’s own performance, or rather lack of it, has provided much needed tail wind to the opposition’s campaign. A new chapter in the history of state violence against citizens was written only a month back in Lahore. At least 14 people lost their lives and scores were injured by bullet wounds as a result of indiscriminate firing by the Punjab police outside PAT headquarters.

A judicial inquiry was ordered and provincial law minister Rana Sanaullah was sacked as a sop. But with the chief minister claiming that he had not ordered the mayhem it still remains a mystery.

On the economic front, despite the government’s claims to the contrary, the plight of the common man remains dismal. The other day the minister of water and power, Khawaja Asif, known for his sanctimonious style, cut a sorry figure when he virtually admitted government’s failure in controlling load shedding.

Ironically, those very people who castigated the PPP government for its ineptness while in the opposition are asking for more time to combat load shedding and bring the burgeoning circular debt down.

The present political imbroglio has a sense of déjà vu about it — the same old plot with change of names. Nonetheless there are important differences. Zardari is not far wrong about the imperial style of the Sharifs and their inner sanctorum. The prime minister and most ministers rarely attend parliament sessions, considering it totally redundant to engage the opposition in an ongoing tête-à-tête.

Obviously if the present system is derailed the country will be back to square one or probably worse. It is axiomatic that the primary stakeholder, the ruling party, should be working overtime to fix the problem rather than dithering and procrastinating.

For the time being there are hardly any signs on the horizon of an impending thaw.