Pakistan’s growth for the fiscal year 2013-14 remained 4.1 per cent which was higher than the forecast (3.4 per cent), according to the latest report of Asian Development Bank (ADB).
“Pakistan recorded growth in the fiscal year that ended in June that surprised 4.1 per cent, above the ADO 2014 forecast of 3.4 per cent,” says Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2014.
The Asian Development Outlook is ADB’s main economic forecasting product, published each April with an update published in September and brief supplements published in July and December.
According to ADO, “Pakistan now expects slower inflation across 2014 and 2015 as an appreciating Pakistan rupee helps contain local prices for imports.”
Overall, developing Asia remains on track toward steady growth in 2014 despite slower-than-expected growth in the United States (US) in the first quarter, it says.
The major industrial economies are anticipated to expand by 1.5 per cent this year, a downward revision from the 1.9 per cent forecast in April’s ADO 2014.
Softer US growth has been somewhat offset by Japan’s robust first quarter performance while the euro area has generally met expectations. In East Asia, quarterly growth in China met ADB expectations with steady consumer demand, targeted government measures to stabilise investment, and a pickup in external demand in the second quarter of 2014. Both retail sales and industrial production have been picking up pace and overall, China is on track to meet ADO 2014 forecasts of 7.5 per cent growth in 2014 and 7.4 per cent in 2015.
For India, ADB maintains its growth forecast at 5.5 per cent for fiscal year (FY) 2014, but upgrades its FY2015 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 6.3 per cent as anticipated reform bears fruit.
Nepal’s growth was seeing a strong finish to its fiscal year. Overall, South Asia’s 2014 forecast is nudged up 0.1 percentage points to 5.4 per cent. The improved outlook in India pushes up the sub-regional forecast for 2015 from 5.8 per cent to 6.1 per cent.
The outlook for Southeast Asia has softened as growth prospects falter in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Growth in Central Asia is gradually moderating, with many economies affected by the deteriorating outlook of the Russian Federation.
Revised projections reflect weaker-than-expected performances in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan so far in 2014 and aggregate growth projections for the region are revised down to 6.3 per cent in 2014 and further to 6.1 per cent in 2015, from 6.5 per cent forecast for both years in ADO 2014.
