Mission unaccomplished

The Syrian mess

The standoff on Ukraine has caught the western powers off guard. The Syrian-Iraqi front is equally active. As declared, Middle East (ME) and Ukraine are to be the new US strategic focus. Levant, the old greater Palestine is infamous for brutal fratricidal and religious wars since Ummayids period and crusades. It was almost three years back that I had written articles on Syria. A few excerpts are being reproduced:

“It was the concept of balance of power where even the wars fought in the ME were minutely choreographed within a scripted prescribed limits, like fixed matches to maintain the desired equations and military balance.”

“The desire for change is genuine, indigenous, spontaneous and relevant to the time. The resistance movement is still operating at a shallow tactical level without a long term perspective. It can be hijacked by the global actors once it has done the softening work.”

“Syria needs a new socio-political covenant which essentially should allow the majority to gain ascendancy while safeguarding the minority rights… Without harmony and a holistic effort for the national reconciliation it can slide into anarchy with domino effect on peripheral states.”

What followed was a clear writing on the wall but did anyone care to read? It appears that while seeking the regime change, the US did not charter a focused, coherent and sustained strategy. It backed out of an apparently impending air assault on Syria. This dithering at a critical juncture annoyed the Saudis to an extent that they went public in its denunciation and endeavoured to act independently. With Saudi pivot swaying, the war in Syria went more in favour of the extremists who are acting as a magnetic pole attracting jihadis from across the globe, especially the UK and the west. It is another source of anxiety for the west as well as a disturbing proposition for Syria’s neighbours who have deep fault lines in their socio-economic and political framework. Syria stands virtually divided into three distinct zones occupied by Assad regime, the Sunni liberals and the Al-Qaeda inspired extremists.

Syria, sharing geographical confluence with Turkey, Iraq, KSA, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Iran, is the cockpit of ME. The Saudi ambivalence towards the extremists can, therefore, boomerang. Al-Qaeda and the global extremists are a floating factor with the ability for cross-border movement, presence and influence. But once rooted in Syria and adjoining Iraq, they will grow in similarity to FATA, Afghanistan, Sinkiang, Nigeria and Yemen but with multidirectional geo-strategic ramifications. The worst threatened is KSA facing a two-front ideological threat from Yemen and Syria. Its vulnerability is further compounded because of its own puritanical creed. It can further radicalise its society which has a brittle socio-religious construct.

While on a vaster canvas, the Saudis are engaged in leading a sectarian war against shia Iran its allies in the ME, but it remains at risk from within. Bashar al-Assad is emerging in a favourable light as a bastion of strength in these anarchic environment. He still commands loyalty of bulk of Syrian armed forces and exercises control over large strategic tracts of land. His clan with Christian and Druz support (20 per cent of population) has ruled since 1970s. The Syrians are educated, liberal and modern people who are socially inclined towards France and Italy with whom they share proximity on the Mediterranean basin.

Mr Obama’s declared global policy is of leaning back rather than engaging pro-actively. The process of winding up from Afghanistan indicates an end to the era of direct military engagements in hostile regions. His emphasis on achieving geo-political objectives with means other than military strength is a significant policy denominator. His preference for creating alliances rather than unilateral action except under unusual circumstances is equally revealing. Having had lost 281 marines in Beirut in a single attack in 1980s, ME quagmire is deeply etched on fragile US psyche. They will be loathed to jump into Syria-Iraq fire stoked by ISIS so soon after Afghan adventure. A stand back aerial engagement strategy may be the preferred option. Mr Obama’s latest policy statement underscores the new US thinking.

Opening two major fronts i.e., Ukraine and Syria-Iraq simultaneously would need finely orchestrated policy and balancing act. Ukraine is EU-NATO priority. While humiliation suffered at the hands of Hizbullah, aided by Syria and Iran, rankles deep in Israeli hearts and will never be forgotten and forgiven by historically insecure Israelis. The US is equally aware of Saudi anxiety and frustration on perceived US duplicity. It therefore has to prioritise. It is operating from EU heartland secure base, NATO military infrastructure and its potent armed forces, economic superiority as well as political solidarity against isolated and vulnerable Russia. Economic and diplomatic sanctions will be the cutting edge of their offensive response against Russia. On the contrary, Russia will resort more to posturing through its military instrument, denial of her natural resources and subversion. However, both camps will operate within redlines under the nuclear overhang. The operational space is limited.

In Syria, the war has cross-border overlap. It is no more a Syrian issue alone. The strife and anarchy is borderless as witnessed in ISIS/extremists’ foray into Iraq and their occupation of a few important cities including Mosul. US and its supreme regional ally Israel will sit back and let anarchy spread, and prevail. The major losers other than the hapless Syrians will be the KSA, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Iran who will have to reach at a regional consensus or else the entire regional political architecture will crumble. Bashar al-Assad has consolidated his position through recent partially held elections however suspect its credentials. While Iran is satisfied with the outcome and the fact that it could be held inspite of insurgency and civil war, Turkey may as well accept it as a fait accompli. Only KSA appears embarrassed.

However, Syria remains divided. Damascus, Homs, Tartous (with Russian naval base) and Latakia (the Alawite stronghold) with Mediterranean outlets/ports are under Assad regime. Allepo and areas along River Euphrates, Hasake and Dairuzor regions adjoining Iraqi border are held by Al-Qaeda and motley extremists. Basra and region bordering Jordan are with the Sunni moderate forces. Obviously, there are overlapping influences as well. Strategic advantage is, therefore, shared by Assad and the extremists.

The US and the West have only limited options. The first is to allow the obtaining status quo of anarchy to continue turning Syria into a wasteland. It has unforeseen and unintended consequences. The second is to strengthen Assad regime although self-contradictory to the course adopted so far. It will please Iran and Iraqi shias but annoy all others. The third is to indirectly support Kurdistan movement and the extremists/ISIS to create a permanent safe haven for sunni jihadis to destabilise the entire ME. However, the most prudent and viable policy should be to arrange a rapprochement between Bashar al-Assad and sunni moderates, within a restructured and more equitable power showing formula giving ultimately the sunni majority an ascendant role.

Growth of ISIS in Syria-Iraq will prove to be an existential danger to their neighbours. ISIS draws its support from sunni angst and frustration with oppressive Assad and Maliki governments in their respective countries. The conflict is taking on the shape of a global or presently at least a regional shia-sunni rift. A proxy war between KSA and Iran has started in Syria-Iraq. Both Syria and Iraq stand divided on sectarian lines. This conflict will give new impetus to Kurdistan freedom movement as well. If the regional anarchy is not the intended end game, the world powers should engineer a coherent alliance based strategy reconciling interests of all stakeholder states, ensuring their sincere and positive participation for stability and peace.

Syria-Iraq if left simmering and unattended will be a powder keg on short fuse which can unravel the whole regional political dispensation and architecture. Are ISIS and other militants being sponsored for completing a hidden global agenda? At the grand strategic level who are their masters? Is international anarchy the new world disorder and Syria-Iraq its birth place?