Accept the caliphate, or else…
Considering the way ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) was gaining ground and momentum, it was only a matter of time before a game-changer presented itself. Part of the north, and much of Iraq’s west, especially along the Syrian border, is now in the hands of al Qaeda’s next generation jihadi formation. It is now officially the Islamic State, with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, former AQ commander in Iraq, as the new caliph. This has implications on many levels.
The foremost threat is now a march on Baghdad. If the capital falling would not be a big disaster in itself, the prospect of jihadi hordes, effectively still living in the eighth century, storming southern oil fields is a nightmare with implications far beyond Iraq. Shock waves, in the form of $150 plus oil prices will be felt around the world, with a very real prospect of pushing EU and US economies back into recession. What future awaits countries like Pakistan in such circumstances, already suffering low growth and high inflation, hardly deserves detailing.
Then there is also the regional situation. It took the Syrian government three years, with Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah’s help, to turn back the vicious attack by al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS. Bashar al-Asad’s forces have been reclaiming lost territory over much of the last year, and the caliphate now puts a serious spanner in the works, and the trouble will be felt across capitals like Moscow, Tehran, Beirut, to name a few.
From our own insurgency’s perspective, the caliphate could hardly have come at a worse time. TTP is demoralised and degraded because of the military operation in North Waziristan. It is no secret that some, if not much, of the enemy high command has sought refuge in Afghanistan. Now, they will find fresh inspiration from Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his advances. If the caliphate can be established in Iraq, after years of struggling against US/NATO forces and then US trained Iraqi army, then surely there is a chance closer to home also.
As much as Baghdad must now restore its authority in areas it has lost, a considerable amount of responsibility also rests on the US president’s shoulders. There could not have been a bigger sign of their failure in Iraq not long ago. Clearly they had not won the war when they declared mission-accomplished and left in a hurry. And since America itself stands to lose from continuing IS successes, there are chances that it will finally act in the right manner.