Coupsters and tsunami

Who will win?

Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose (the more things change, the more they remain the same) – French proverb.

Yesterday was the 37^th anniversary of the late General Zia-ul-Haq’s successful coup de tat against Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whom he subsequently sent to the gallows by committing a judicial murder. Ironically ‘bakiaat-e-Zia’ (remnants of Zia) are now ruling the roost in Islamabad for the third time.

But they are facing in some ways a similar situation that Bhutto had faced after the 1977 general elections. The PPP had won the elections but owing to allegations of widespread election fraud by the Bhutto led government, opposition parties refused to accept the results.

To Bhutto’s utter shock and contrary to what his intelligence sleuths had been telling him the disparate opposition parties coalesced under the banner of PNA (Pakistan National Alliance). The alliance successfully launched a movement in the major cities of the country.

Primarily owing to ruthless suppression by the state machinery, the opposition got the dead bodies it badly needed to give impetus to its campaign. The movement for holding fresh elections soon metamorphosed into a ‘Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e-Nizam-e-Mustafa’, (movement for implementation of an Isalmic system).

Unfortunately the PNA campaign for holding free and fair elections was hijacked by the religious right, namely the Jamaat-e-Islami, with tacit backing from the military led by Zia-ul-Haq and its powerful intelligence apparatus. Of course Bhutto was utterly shocked when his handpicked army chief, who incidentally was also known as the biggest sycophant in the military, ousted him on July 5 1977.

Unfortunately politicians with perfectly secular credentials like air marshal (r) Asghar Khan, and Wali Khan and Shabaz Mazari of the ANP, became willing tools of the military in order to satisfy their almost psychopathic hatred for Bhutto.

Bhutto’s widow Nusrat Bhutto drank the poisoned chalice by agreeing not only to join the movement along with her young daughter Benazir Bhutto, but also to spearhead it.

Wali Khan famously said in an interview that Bhutto and Pakistan couldn’t coexist. They did not rest till assured by Zia-ul-Haq that Bhutto ultimately will be hanged.

It was indeed ironic that Zia-ul-Haq, after initially bringing PNA parties in the cabinet, dumped them as soon as he was finished with Bhutto. After being used, the same gentlemen in early 1981 decided to form another alliance: Movement for Restoration of Democracy (MRD).

Bhutto’s widow Nusrat Bhutto drank the poisoned chalice by agreeing not only to join the movement along with her young daughter Benazir Bhutto, but also to spearhead it. The alliance, largely Sindh based, also included Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUI (F) (Jamaiat Ulema-e-Islam), Jam Saqi of Communist Party of Pakistan and Rasul Bux Palego of Awami Tehrik. But it would never have succeeded without the active participation of the persecuted PPP stalwarts who bravely faced ruthless suppression of the state.

Zia-ul-Haq after being killed in a mysterious plane crash in August 1988 is now more or less relegated to history books. But his legacy — largely negative — still haunts the nation.

Whether it’s the so-called Islamic clauses in the constitution, or the jihadists’ culture that has destroyed the national ethos, both can be traced back to Zia-ul-Haq. Unlike his predecessors and his successor coupster General Pervez Musharraf, Zia’s was an ideological dictatorship.

He unabashedly used the name of Islam to perpetuate himself. In the process he created a new breed of politicians including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the Chaudhrys of Gujarat, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, Khawaja Asif and Ch Nisar Ali Khan, just to name a few.

In fact the PML-N is a breakaway from PML (Junejo) created for Zia-ul-Haq’s handpicked Prime Minister Mohammad Khan Junejo as a result of the party less election held by him in 1985. Zia had conveniently declared party politics as anathema to Islam.

Fortunately Nawaz Sharif has emerged as a born gain democrat of sorts. He refused to kowtow to his handpicked army chief general Pervez Musharraf and in the process was ousted by the recalcitrant general in October 1999. Perhaps this was the first coup in the history of the country that was a result of civilian prime minister’s malfeasance rather than the opposition parties ganging up against him.

Nawaz Sharif in his third stint as prime minister, partly owing to his own follies, is facing a pincer movement from the opposition that would love to see the back of him. Of course a little help from the military – that is still not forthcoming in spite of best efforts — would help.

The PTI chief Imran Khan has gone ballistic against the Sharifs. He thunderously declared at his mammoth Bahawalpur moot late last month that not just four constituencies where he wants a recount, the May 11 general elections were entirely flawed and fraudulent.

According to him the government has no legitimacy and by the time he is through with his threatened million march towards Islamabad on August 14, there will be no Sharif government in Islamabad.

Sharif is quite capable of shooting himself in the foot like he fell right into the trap laid out by Musharraf in the events leading to his ouster on 12 October 1999.

Tahirul Qadri the rabble-rouser Maulana is also threatening to launch a revolution of his own. Although both Imran and Qadri claim that they are not forming a grand alliance, their moves seem to be well coordinated. Like Malcolm in the middle the Chaudhrys and Sheikh Rashid are bending backwards for formation of a united front against the Sharifs.

All this is taking place at a crucial juncture when with full ownership of the government, the military is engaged in an existential air and ground offensive to flush out terrorists holed up in the badlands. The massive influx of refugees from N Waziristan into KP, the province ruled by the PTI, should be its primary concern.

Ironically, Imran and the estranged interior minister Nisar Ali Khan both have been strong proponents of talks with the Taliban. Now when the time has come to stand up and be counted, one of the Khans wants to launch a movement against the government while the other feels isolated and abandoned by his cabinet colleagues starting from the prime minister himself.

Reportedly there are moves by the government to woo the PTI chief who himself has given an opening by agreeing to call off his threatened tsunami march if the Supreme Court opens a probe into election rigging in four constituencies. The Khan should decide whether he wants to march into Islamabad on August 14 to oust the government or the apex court?

Those out of job politicians who want to exhort the PTI chief into action by somehow dragging the military into the equation would realise soon to their peril that times have changed since general Zia followed by Musharraf ruled the roost.

The military under General Kayani belatedly discerned that it could rule without blatantly taking over. Kayani with a little help from the apex court under CJP Iftikhar adeptly used his ISI Chief General Shuja Pasha to keep the Zardari led PPP government constantly on the ropes.

Sharif is quite capable of shooting himself in the foot like he fell right into the trap laid out by Musharraf in the events leading to his ouster on 12 October 1999.The massacre by the Punjab police outside the Model Town headquarters of Tahirul Qadri’s headquarters last month provided the opposition, Imran Khan inclusive, to go for the Sharifs.

General Raheel Sharif is perhaps the first military chief who seems to be a clear break from Zia’s legacy. Nawaz should be able to strike a better equation with him — provided he is willing to outgrow his own past.