A contest of the worst self-inflicted wound
Just over one year into his heavy mandate government, Nawaz Sharif’s ruling party has triggered a multi-layered opposition revolt both in his core Punjab constituency and the centre, raising questions whether another unceremonious exit awaits the prime minister.
N’s immediate concern is Tahirul Qadri, especially how, after Model Town, he is cajoling some discontented and some (for now) insignificant opposition groups, and how this could snowball if handled in the PML-N’s usual crude manner. Things could get very difficult if the cleric is able to lure the PTI into his ‘revolution’. But this is not the only incident in N’s third first year when his core circle has created needless problems.
First, his secretive, and suspicious, approach to the talks upset the military. It should have been a simple matter after the APC. Yet Nawaz first went silent, then gave clear indications of military action in NW, and when the army had prepared, he suddenly announced the talks. There was no reason to for the back-and-forth, and he could have easily shared his talks agenda with the brass.
Nonetheless the methodology was clearly calculated – such things are at such levels – and could not have meant to achieve anything other than showing who’s calling the shots. And why that was important, especially when Zardari and Kayani had put a smooth working model in place, explains a lot about N’s mindset. It’s another thing, of course, that the manner of the talks was a disaster in itself. Both teams were non-representative, and both clearly pro-Taliban. And the military was not consulted much, nor its human intelligence assets used to separate pro and anti-talks groups.
Then N went out on a limb to embarrass the military over Musharraf. The Nov7 versus Oct12 case, the belligerence of the Khawajas, and especially turning down Gen Raheel’s ECL request, was deliberately meant to rub the brass the wrong way. There was even chatter of a firm conviction in N’s inner circle that netting Musharraf was central to the country’s “democratic project”.
Nawaz even managed to ruffle some feathers with Zarb-e-Azb, which otherwise commands overwhelming support across the country. The element of surprise was understandable, as was the operation’s inevitability after the Karachi airport attack, but keeping a central stakeholder like the KPK government in the dark is difficult to understand.
The cleavage widened after the Geo incident. The government, as usual, first went into either self-induced paralysis or cleverly calculated silence – take your pick. And when came time for political posturing, the prime minister chose to visit Hamid Mir in hospital rather than diffuse the confrontation, much less condemn charging the ISI chief like a common criminal. Of course, it’s not like his inner circle adopted this course of action out of moral compulsions. Nor was its main outcome, disappointment in the military, an unintended consequence.
Nawaz even managed to ruffle some feathers with Zarb-e-Azb, which otherwise commands overwhelming support across the country. The element of surprise was understandable, as was the operation’s inevitability after the Karachi airport attack, but keeping a central stakeholder like the KPK government in the dark is difficult to understand. The PTI government is furious it was not informed in time to prepare for the IDPs, despite counter charges that it should have made contingency plans regardless of the operation’s timing. PTI leaders believe this was a deliberate tactic. Its claims of rigging now resonate louder than ever, and its street jiyalas have shown a coming of age of late, which has put the government on the back foot.
But Lahore’s Model Town incident has been by far the government’s worst example of shooting itself in the foot. It clearly over played the threat from Qadri’s sit-in, and undertook a series of blunders that has seriously undermined its position, both at the provincial and federal level.
“The government’s credibility has suffered a very serious blow and its popularity in Punjab is now in danger”, said Dr Mehdi Hasan, veteran analyst and commentator. “If there were a poll now, there is no way they could make a show like last year”.
Pot and kettle
Dr Hasan shares the growing sentiment that the N league’s past year has been a story of mishandled events. And that is because, according to him, the government does not have able strategists in its core working group. The prime minister’s advisors continue to be family members and long time yes-men, who have probably never disagreed with the party leadership.
But, ironically, no matter what manner of political foolishness made Nawaz & Co catapult Qadri into the limelight, the rise has caught the cleric as much off guard as the government. And both are clueless about their immediate action-and-reaction choices.
This may be N’s saving grace – that opposition hordes looking to surround and suffocate him are just as much without direction. And in looking to deliver an early blow, they might well over reach and end up hurting themselves far more than the government. Already, Qadri has had to backtrack on some of his claims. Toppling the government, suddenly, is not foremost on his agenda. Nor is gathering the grand alliance Sh Rasheed mentioned just the other day, for example.
“MQM is the only organised party that has come out in Qadri’s support so far, otherwise Sh Rasheed is a one-man-show and the Q-league doesn’t enjoy much public support these days, which is why they would like to leverage his momentum”, added Dr Hasan.
“But Qadri, too, has limited appeal. First he came before the elections and wanted to disrupt the process. Now he’s come again when a full scale military operation is underway and wants his revolution. It’s as if he expects the door bell to ring one fine day to find that the ‘revolution’ has finally arrived”.
And it is not very likely, all things considered, that he has enough staying power to seriously hurt the government, which makes the ruling party’s initial hysteria all the more difficult to understand. Yet Qadri will grind the killings as much as he can, and continue to draw opposition support in the process. But with the military busy with Zarb-e-Azb and the people already fed up with government and opposition antics, the support base is not likely to extend beyond PAT and likeminded party adherents.
Will Khan, won’t Khan?
Unless, of course, PTI also throws in its lot with the growing wave of opposition discontent. With its momentum from the election rigging campaign and rising street power, it could well be the game changer that all shades of opposition are looking for. And they might even be able to build enough pressure to call for mid-term elections.
But the party is unlikely to join, at least not now.
“We do not intend to join any Qadri alliance, this is no time for such moves”, said Ijaz Chaudhry, PTI’s Punjab chapter president. “We have a different agenda and a very different style. We have very open and liberal discussions, not a vague program”.
A similar dilemma faced the PTI during Qadri’s last ‘revolution’. And even though many among the party rank and file were eager to join the sit-in, it emerged, after lengthy discussion, that there were simply too many question marks to go all in. And apparently similar sentiments continue to prevail.
“But we will go all the way in support of Qadri’s party on the matter of the Lahore killings”, added Chaudhry. “This is a very serious issue and we will pursue it to the end. Such state behaviour is not tolerable. Even if PAT backs down at some stage, we will not”.
PTI wishes PAT, and friends, well but would rather pursue its own agenda for now. And after Imran Khan’s Bahawalpur speech, that means it has moved from its demand of investigating rigging to marching on the capital on Aug14.
“What sort of collision that leads to remains to be seen”, said Chaudhry, and added that the days when the government could bully opponents and muscle away dissent are already behind us. The ruling party will not recover from its mistakes, especially the killings. And even though the opposition move, right now, does not have the boots to kick the government out of office, things will nonetheless become much more difficult, in Lahore and Islamabad.
N’s shoes
Of course the view is very different from the prime minister’s house, and the Punjab chief minister’s secretariat. Nawaz’s silence on crucial matters, every time, is misunderstood, they say. The prime minister is cleverly employing former president Asif Zardari’s famous ‘delay and diffuse’ doctrine, where he would stretch events, putting more time between himself and controversial events and decisions, minimising the impact.
PTI wishes PAT, and friends, well but would rather pursue its own agenda for now. And that means they will continuously raise their level of agitation unless the government moves forward on their election rigging charge and investigate the four constituencies questioned.
The focus then was on highlighting the government’s success to deflect popular opinion. The ground breaking of Dasu dam, ahead of time, was a similar exercise. And differences like Zardari not going for force, like Model Town, are minimal differences of approach between the two leaders, according to N’s group.
They also speak of a conspiracy. Sources close to the leadership, wishing not to be named, tell of agency reports that arms had been slipped into the Minhajul Quran secretariat. And considering Qadri’s coming and the planned march and sit-in, the report sent very wrong signals. An overriding sense of public duty, of course, then compelled the province’s law enforcement machinery to be mobilised in the middle of the night.
But when PAT workers rebutted a simple harmless attempt to remove security barricades, suspicion grew, so they tried again, and again, until the situation got completely out of control and some people opened fire and blamed it on the government.
But even if there are few takers for such arguments, the ruling party is pretty sure things will not get much worse, and there is little chance of Imran being added to the Qadri mix. There was even a chuckle when Imran hinted his party might resign the KPK government. “A new government will come, but Imran will not”, they said, happy how those trying to punish the ruling party for its follies are not without their share of mistakes in their desperation.
As political parties fight, the country remains caught in arguably the worst security and economic situation in its history. Blowback from the military action will reach urban centres sooner or later. The IDP problem is about to explode and failing immediate action, the government will be responsible for more needles deaths, which will ultimately impact the operation. And the economy, despite official claims, continues to deteriorate; the couple of percentage points dip in inflation has not impacted the man on the street and energy shortage continues to shut down businesses and drive people mad.
The leadership, meantime, is caught among very different concerns. But even as much as its problems are entirely its own fault, its detractors, too, are hurting themselves in return. Qadri is already losing steam, unable to back his fiery sermons. And Sh Rasheed and Q league risk exposing themselves as opportunists should Qadri’s unexpected burst fizzle out. Imran Khan, on the other hand, will lose electoral support if he resigns from the system instead of fulfilling some of his campaign promises through parliamentary mechanism.
Going by precedent, even if the government continues with its blunders and gives the opposition more opportunities, the latter are likely to emerge even more splintered than before, until of course the system collapses and people return to the polls to choose from among the same people again. Neither the government nor the opposition, it seems, needs the other to hurt them. They do a fine job on their own.