This involves the whole region
The Pak-Russian arms thaw is encouraging news. Frozen since the sixties, the defence cooperation with Moscow has come at a crucial time for Pakistan, and carries potential implications that go beyond the realm of military hardware.
First of all, Russian technology will benefit our forces in a number of ways, particular in term s of cost-benefit ratio. Anybody who has done arms deals with Washington knows the high cost and maintenance charges that are always part and parcel of American weapons. And the MI-35 is a good start – a multipurpose carrier used for deployment, attack, med-evac, reconnaissance, etc. And its earlier Hind version was known for its dominance in areas just like the rugged FATA hills where the TTP insurgency is based. Already our Cobras, originally meant for India-specific deterrence, have been qualitatively degraded in this fight, and could do with replacements. No wonder there is fury in the Indian press.
But there is more to it than the helicopter. Moscow, under Putin, is in the process of reasserting itself on the outside world, particularly Washington and its NATO allies. In that process it has taken a number of aggressive positions, especially in the Levant and Eastern Europe, where Russia and friends have been able to blunt western advances. And in forging new allies, Putin has firmly embraced the old Soviet Andropovian doctrine – Russian strengths (oil and weapons) in return for a working relationship.
And for obvious reasons, Pakistan is especially interesting to Russia. The Americans are about to leave Afghanistan, and the regional power calculus will shift again. Too many players are involved, and good terms with Islamabad will be crucial to exercise influence.
Interestingly, military exchanges with Russia also imply more business with China down the road. Moscow and Beijing have deep military cooperation, and offer select jointly built aircraft to special friends. Of course, Islamabad’s economic gurus understand well that when the Sino-Russian arms market opens, so does a lot of other commerce that can benefit all economies concerned.
There is no final word on the deal yet, but the diplomatic posturing is clear. The foreign office would do well to look into this matter very carefully. The anger in India might not mean much, but there will be angry friends too. Russia’s proximity with the Iranians will upset the Saudis, which immediately brings the matter of Riyal-politics to contend with. A helicopter deal is about to test the diplomatic maturity of an entire region.