When all pieces are in position for the sweep
Though recent troop movements suggest a full-fledged operation across North Waziristan Agency (NWA) is on the cards, confusion prevailing among top government ministers and the prime minister’s house reflects that despite military preparedness and pressure from US and Chinese governments, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is still undecided about when the army should move in.
A military operation in NWA has been a long standing demand of the international community, led by the US, whose legislature has also made its aid to Pakistan conditional with the operation against terrorist networks active in the tribal belt.
However, demands made by the top Chinese leadership in meetings with chief of army staff General Raheel Sharif during his recent China visit, fresh pressure from President Obama and the linking of aid package by US congress with army action in NWA has somehow changed the thinking in the federal capital.
North Waziristan is a hotbed of terrorism, where the government’s writ is seen nowhere and the area is ruled by militants related to various groups, including the Haqqani network, Hafiz Gul Bahadur, and other factions of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
During the army chief’s tour, the Chinese leadership conveyed serious concerns about the recent wave of attacks carried out by terrorists in China. Beijing has also urged the army chief for an operation in NWA.
It is largely believed that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the militant outfit responsible for fresh terrorist attacks in Chinese cities of Kunming and Urumqi, has bases and training camps from where the Muslim minority guerrilla fighters of ETIM are trained to launch attacks into China.
Under the command of the new chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif, the army looks determined to rout out terrorists. The incidents of beheading of 23 FC men, who had been held captive, shook the rank and file of the armed forces and an unprecedented response was witnessed soon after the incident. Around 85 militants including top commanders of TTP were killed in shelling by Air Force jets.
This attack was followed by more strikes and now the TTP leadership is on the run as most of its top-notch and most feared commanders have either taken refuge in Afghanistan or in villages along the Pak-Afghan border.
Under the command of the new chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif, the army looks determined to rout out terrorists. The incidents of beheading of 23 FC men, who had been held captive, shook the rank and file.
According to sources familiar with the tribal belt, the army is speeding up efforts for an operation in NWA. The forces have blocked all routes leading to Afghanistan and there is strict focus in checking cross border infiltration and attacks.
Security officials say the army is fully prepared for implementing any order by the civilian government, including a full-fledged operation. Army tanks have reached sensitive destinations, while cobra helicopters are ready for an attack from Dera Ismail Khan.
Talking to Pakistan Today, Colonel (retd) Khalid Munir, a known defence analyst, said that an operation may succeed now but it could not get rid of terrorism in across country.
“The situation has changed significantly and militants have moved to settled areas. Any operation may only help end terrorism by 10-20 per cent. Militants have reached other areas of the country and now it’s not a piece of cake for the government,” he added.
However, the retired army officer agreed that the operation would help remove the bases of these terrorists, who have developed a huge infrastructure across the agency.
“Yes, this operation may help Pakistan seal its borders, remove all the bases used by terrorists and also get rid of their training centres. But a massive cleanup is needed as the menace of terrorism has expanded to settled areas,” he said.
He confirmed that the army had geared up its movements in the agency and troops may move anytime if the civilian government approves an operation.
In order to delay the operation, Colonel Khalid said a 64-member jirga from North Waziristan also called on Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Sardar Mehtab Khan Abbasi and Corps Commander Peshawar. They requested that any impending operation be delayed.
He said the jirga was led by Sher Mohammad, the grandson of a prominent tribal elder Faqir Mohammad, who had waged jihad against the British rule some seven decades back. He said the jirga requested the governor and corps commander to delay any action into NWA for at least 15 days.
However, he added, that the governor and corps commander Peshawar told the jirga to expel all foreign militants from the area first. Col Khalid expressed disbelief that the jirga was not in a position to get foreign fighters expelled from the agency.
On the other hand, Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the commander of another militant group who had recently revoked his peace treaty with the government, has also extended his deadline for the tribal people to evacuate NWA. Initially, he had announced a 10-day deadline, which has now been extended.
A curfew was clamped on Friday night and troops were asked to prepare for moving forward. However, the final decision about any operation has to be taken by the federal government, Colonel Khalid added.
There are also reports that around 9,000 tribal people have already migrated to Afghanistan, where they are being hosted by the Afghan government and each is being paid a stipend of Rs3000 per month.
General (retd) Talat Masood, another defence expert, said that it was Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who had to decide on the NWA operation.
He said that the army was ready but the premier looked confused. “Without a nod from the civilian government, the army will not move for the operation,” he said.
According to sources familiar with the tribal belt, the army is speeding up efforts for an operation in NWA. The forces have blocked all routes leading to Afghanistan and there is strict focus in checking cross border infiltration and attacks.
Asked whether the Army Chief General Raheel Sharif may take the unilateral decision for the operation, as was the case recently when he ordered troops to retaliate in NWA, General Talat Masood said that there was a huge difference between retaliatory action and a full-fledged operation.
“The army chief can order unilateral retaliatory action if troops are attacked. But this does not mean he would go for an operation in the sensitive area of North Waziristan. He will never take responsibility for the operation, which may take any turn,” he said and added that the civilian leadership would have to take the responsibility itself.
He also said that Nawaz Sharif was perhaps worried about possible retaliatory action by militants across the country, especially in Punjab where his party is ruling. He expressed his doubts over the possibility of an army operation into NWA, stating that it seemed that the army would carry on its retaliatory action against militants.
“No immediate operation is on the cards in NWA,” the retired army general added.
Asked whether the US had linked its aid to Pakistan to put further pressure for the operation, he said there was nothing new about making US aid conditional with the operation.
“This clause was invoked years ago by US legislature. In order to make the aid possible, the US president has to overrule the constitutional clause every year,” he said and added that Pakistan needed to decide on its own whether it wanted to get rid of terrorism or it wanted to continue with militancy.
“In fact, we are facing a huge internal threat. One of the measures to get rid of this internal threat is an army operation to flush out militants. But half-hearted retaliatory actions would not do any good. You would have to get your soil cleaned of these militants once and for all,” he asserted.
He said that the indecision of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was proving disastrous. “Prime Minister Sharif would have to take a final decision soon as it’s already late,” concluded the retired general.