Limitations of air strikes

A ground incursion will be needed

The army on Wednesday expressed resolve to intensify airstrikes against the militants. As before, the strikes are supposed to be in retaliation for a major terrorist attack, this time on the Karachi airport. There is a perception that as criminals in the tribal areas cannot be brought to justice through due process of law, air strikes need to be resorted to as punishment whenever they commit any grave act of terrorism. North Waziristan, South Waziristan and Khyber are the three agencies which were chosen this year for reprisals.

There is a need to realise what the airstrikes can achieve and what they can’t. The least that strikes conducted on the basis of real time intelligence can do is to degrade the abilities of the militants. The most they can do is to take out the militant leadership. The strikes alone cannot however establish the writ of the state, which requires the physical occupation and control of the tribal areas by the army, leading to the setting up of an effective civilian authority and a subsequent withdrawal of the troops to the barracks.

A review of this year’s strikes would indicate that it is futile to hope that the punishment inflicted on the militants would act as a deterrent leading to a cessation of attacks inside the tribal areas and the country at large. The recurrence of terrorist acts within days of the air attacks indicates that these fail to deter the militants from committing acts of terrorism.

Airstrikes with F-17s have an element of surprise. When undertaken on the basis of sound and timely intelligence these can destroy terrorist facilities in remote and inaccessible areas without incurring any loss on the part of the troops.

The targets during the strikes conducted over the year were militant hideouts, facilities and dumps of ammunition. These have also supposedly led to the elimination g of some of the TTP commanders.

The targets during the strikes conducted over the year were militant hideouts, facilities and dumps of ammunition. These have also supposedly led to the elimination g of some of the TTP commanders. Unlike drone attacks, however, the airstrikes have failed so far to take out any prominent TTP leader. The attacks do cause setbacks but do not deter determined and motivated terrorists from continuing their activities. Despite the shock and awe effect of the airstrikes it remains doubtful if these have acted as a disincentive against militant attacks on civilians or military personnel.

The target of the air attacks being limited, the large body of the militants spread over several distant places and also living among the civilian population remains by and large unaffected. The militants move away to safer places, where they lie low for a while before taking up their terrorist mission once again.

The first strikes this year were conducted in North Waziristan and Khyber Agency in the third week of February and continued for three days. These led to the killing of about 80 suspected terrorists, though officially 15 deaths were confirmed. A considerable number of those killed were Uzbeks. The attacks were conducted within days of the TTP issuing a video showing 23 decapitated FC men. The army maintained that those targeted in airstrikes were also involved in an attack on a cinema in Peshawar and the killing of an army officer in the city. Hours earlier the army had said over 100 soldiers had been killed by the TTP in the last five months.

The strikes in Khyber Agency on April 24 were supposed to target the militants who were involved in the Islamabad Sabzi Mandi blast and an attack on policemen in Peshawar. 35 suspected militants and eight civilians were killed in the action. A bomb factory and two hideouts were reportedly destroyed.

There was no respite meanwhile to the terrorist activities. In the weeks that followed, attacks on polio vaccination teams continued, a blast in Peshawar killed nine policemen, another injured 19 cops, a political agent’s convoy was hit by a blast in Hangu, six troops were killed in another incident of the type in Kurram. To crown it all, a Judge and 10 others were killed in blasts and firing by militants inside an Islamabad court.

A limited airstrike was conducted by military helicopters in South Waziristan towards the end of April. This was again described as an act of reprisal against an incident a day earlier, when three security personnel, including an army officer, were killed in a bomb blast.

As the TTP terrorists failed to be disciplined by these strikes, another round of air attacks was initiated in North Waziristan between May 21 and 23. As ISPR put it, the air attacks were in retaliation for the killing of “a large number of civilians and security forces personnel” by terrorists in Fata, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Karachi.

What is required now is to move beyond the airstrikes. What is needed is for the army to move into North Waziristan, the hub of all terrorism in the country and a haven for thousands of Uzbeks, Chechens, Chinese, and Arab terrorists.

This time airstrikes took a toll of at least 73 suspected local and foreign militants. Numerous militant hideouts and bases were reportedly destroyed. Five top militants were reported to have been killed but their names were not given out.

As before, the airstrikes caused panic with reportedly 58,000 tribesmen fleeing from the agency in fear of a fuller ground offensive that did not take place.

The last airstrikes in the series were conducted in Khyber Agency’s Tirah Valley on Tuesday, leading to 25 suspected militants killed. These too were needed as the earlier strikes had failed to put an end to terrorist activities.

The airstrikes promised on Wednesday will produce no different results. While these will degrade some of the TTP’s capacities they will not establish the writ of the state in North Waziristan or Khyber. Terrorist attacks on innocent people and troops performing their duties will continue as before. The desperation on the part of the TTP could lead it to undertake even more audacious acts.

What is required now is to move beyond the airstrikes. What is needed is for the army to move into North Waziristan, the hub of all terrorism in the country and a haven for thousands of Uzbeks, Chechens, Chinese, and Arab terrorists. It should meanwhile seek the help of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribes, the Dawars and the friendly Gul Bahadur group. The ground operation supported by airstrikes should eliminate all terrorist groups allied with al Qaeda in one way or another. With part of the Waziri tribesmen having taken shelter in Afghanistan and part in Bannu and the adjoining areas, the local population would suffer the least from the operation.

Pakistan will be a secure country after the NW agency is cleared of the local and foreign terrorists and the command and control centers of a dozen terrorist networks are destroyed.