Another year of uninterrupted, sacred democracy!
Nawaz’s third first year as prime minister has not been without its surprises, as usual. And he’s been quicker this time to expose his soft underbelly; going out of his way to accommodate his core constituencies. So, just as much as the about turn on initiatives to broaden the tax net was meant to cajole his industrialist brethren, the sudden liking for talks to the Taliban also served to soothe his religious-right vote bank once the clergy made its opposition to military strike in North Waziristan (NW) clear to Mian sahib.
But the 21st century is a different brand of politics. And it increasingly seems that those schooled in the old Zia-model must either adapt or perish. Unsurprisingly, this is where the prime minister is betraying far too strong a liking for the old way of doing things to inspire much confidence in his ability to survive in the long run. Pakistan has become a very different country than last time he was in power. An active insurgency is eating into the state, minority persecution of the ‘90s has turned into proper genocide with the centre barely blinking, and arch rival India is bringing Narindra Modi – the epitome of far-right, Pakistan-hating, Hindu politics – to power in New Delhi. This, of course, when the Americans are leaving Afghanistan – most likely lock, stock, and barrel – and remnants of the old, anti-Pakistan Northern Alliance are set to assume power in Kabul.
Now there was a time when Pakistan played power-broker in the region’s shadow wars. The strategic depth doctrine ensured complicity across the western border, and the military’s militant proxies set the balance with the quantitatively superior military machine on the India front.
But how times change. Mian sahib’s right-of-centre posture sits so at odds with the rightist Modia whirlwind in India, while at the same time lamenting the loss of religious-right Taliban influence in Afghanistan’s emerging setup. His promises of economic revival, too, have fizzled out. The rupee was painstakingly bolstered just when exports needed an uptick, and other than the 3-G, 4-G auctions, all economic initiatives, especially the eurobonds, have been mind-bogglingly self defeating. Inflation is high, especially in staple food – criminal for an agri-based economy – and famines have begun surfacing in parts of the periphery.
If the N-league has had a win, it is in scoring points over the military. For a while, especially around the time Gen Musharraf was indicted, there was satirical chatter that the ruling party considers no better credential for democratic strength than ridiculing the military. But while a stronger polity and a more compliant military are good for everyday business, present times dictate a more prudent approach. Mounting internal and external troubles mean the military and the government must be on the same page, now more so than ever, and first ensure Pakistan survives the many problems that surround it – military, political and economic.
Unless such realisation is found, the ruling party will have little to celebrate from its first year in power except just that – another year of uninterrupted democracy.
