Definitely a milestone for the government
The Nawaz government has surprised her audience remarkably with a recent visit to Iran, shaking hands with the theocracy’s Supreme Leader Khameini and recently elected President Rouhani. The high profile delegation that visited Tehran included chief minister of Balochistan, Dr Abdul Malik Baloch, governor of Baluchistan, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, advisor on foreign affairs and national security, Sartaj Aziz, special assistant on foreign affairs, Tariq Fatemi, finance minister, Ishaq Dar, and minister for petroleum and natural resources, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. The outcome of the meeting was also exceptional. Sharif proved that visiting Iran was not a mere political move to show that Pakistan has not allied itself with the Wahabi bloc by signing a total of nine MoUs in the short trip. More importantly, Iran’s supreme leader expressed an understanding of Pakistan’s reservations; the fear of sanctions. However, given that Iran has completed her side of the bargain Pakistan will be expected to follow through.
The meeting between Iran and Pakistan is definitely a milestone for the Nawaz government. PML-N’s mandate prior to the elections stressed on economic recovery. It was more than anything else perhaps the dissatisfaction with the economy, growing unemployment and worsening energy crisis that skewed the vote bank in the industrialist Nawaz Sharif’s favour. However, with economic growth and resolving the energy crisis, the PML-N has had to question certain notions regarding foreign affiliations. Riyadh, which has long been considered PML-N’s comfort zone, and has been coming forward with financial assistance in the name of Pak-Saudi friendship, has raised criticism. Similarly the US’s harsh stance against any economic advancement towards the pariah-state Iran had discouraged even pro-Iran PPP to take a few steps back and reconsider their decision.
Recent shifts in global dynamics and spheres of power have influenced decades-old alliances; shaken previously held notions.
But the bigger question that often crosses our minds is: Must Pakistan posture herself according to predetermined regional red lines? For many, joining hands with Saudi Arabia is synonymous to turning a cold shoulder towards Iran. And similarly civil ties with the US and Afghanistan (previously the Karzai government) was only possible if Pakistan treated Iran with suspicion as all states were expected to while the theocracy threatened global security owing to its nuclear program. Perhaps the red lines in the Middle East have not changed much at all. Regional influence is a prize the Shi’a and the Wahabi bloc are vying for — and between them Israel is striving to maintain her own presence. The fact that Saudi Arabia and Iran will continue to compete however does not translate into unconditional backing from Western allies; and this is the cleavage Pakistan’s political establishment has intelligently spotted.
Recent shifts in global dynamics and spheres of power have influenced decades-old alliances; shaken previously held notions. After the Republicans created immense hue and cry over Iran’s increasingly threatening nuclear program in an attempt to gain public support for another war Obama knew that the Israeli lobby’s strong hold on media has become a menace. More so, a general shift in public sentiment within Israel has been sensed as well. Uzi Eilam, from the heart of Israel’s secret security mechanisms, working on Israel’s own nuclear program and having served senior roles in the defense establishment that culminated in a decade as the head of the atomic agency; stated that Netanyahu has exaggerated the Iranian threat for political mileage. In fact he asserted that Iran cannot possibly be any less than a decade away from creating a nuclear bomb. After positive discussions between IAEA and the Iranian government, supported by the P5+1; this statement coming from within Israel rests remaining reservations to a great degree.
The west’s shift in allowing Iran some leverage in attaining its nuclear aspirations however does not redeem the Shi’a state of Wahabi allegations. Iran remains the threat, the black sheep, and the menace within the region. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel have not welcomed these developments between the west and Iran. One could say the handshake and proceeding negotiations over nuclear matters were seen as a back-stab by long allies; and yet these narratives of a demon Shi’a state preparing to destroy the west benefit only the regional competitors. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel enjoy the influence they command in their region by virtue of allying themselves with the west. And misusing this power and flaunting this backing was a big mistake. Before securing the interests of allies the US will secure her own interests; domestic economic woes and bringing the troops home above all.
The west’s shift in allowing Iran some leverage in attaining its nuclear aspirations however does not redeem the Shi’a state of Wahabi allegations. Iran remains the threat, the black sheep, and the menace within the region.
However a swing in policy towards Iran does not mean the US would encourage economic ties between Pakistan and Iran. Alternatives from Central Asia via Afghanistan; TAPI for instance; is a more viable option. The US needs India on board as a stabilising force, and without Pakistan there can be no TAPI. Yet Pakistan’s domestic woes have only been increasing despite strong alliances, security problems only been worsening, and loyalties only been questioned throughout a decade dedicated solely to a war we never started. On the contrary despite having maintained warm relations with Iran (with reference to Chabaha and gas imports); India enjoys US’ confidence more than Pakistan. Even though relations with the US have improved since the Salala incident Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership seems to have learned that following previously established rules to the core can only close doors to opportunities.
The key is to cease the opportunities at hand. Pakistan enjoys warm relationship with the Saudi government, but why must Shi’a-Sunni rivalry come in the way of resolving Pakistan’s energy woes? Sanctions are a risk we might be taking but shutting out any room for talks will only destabilise us further and worsen our internal problems that encompass the economy and energy along with security. Pragmatism is the key to successful relations; not loyalty that requires a blindfold. And by opening to the option of working with Saudi Arabia and Iran simultaneously, Pakistan will be facing more challenges; but these challenges can be overcome and eventually preserving national interest can be the final goal.