One year of Sharifs

BJP’s sweep and challenges ahead

What ordinarily should have been treated as a routine matter, Nawaz Sharif attending the National Assembly session the other day, was breaking news for news channels. It was so as the prime minister was gracing the lower house after a gap of almost five months, the second time in the year.

Sharif chose not to speak and merely listened in to his trusted lieutenant, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, painting a rosy picture of the government’s economic performance and giving a road map for the next three years to the parliament. The prime minister could have used the occasion to brief the parliamentarians on the ongoing charade being termed as negotiations with the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) and his recent efforts along with the military to restore peace in Karachi.

Since assuming power, he has chosen not to visit the senate even once. Perhaps for the simple reason that the ruling party does not have a majority till March next year, when half the members of the upper house will be re-elected.

This would have been a good opportunity to take the MNAs on board on the government’s policies and initiatives. But unfortunately it was missed. After all, parliament is the repository of power and should be strengthened, especially at a time when the ruling party is facing multifarious challenges from various quarters. But perhaps the prime minister, by attending the NA session, only made a half-hearted attempt in that direction.

The government’s report card being in office for almost a year is rather mixed. Ishaq Dar can incessantly crow about stabilising the economy by getting more loans to retire the old ones and keeping the rupee dollar parity to less than 100 rupees.

The economic roadmap presented to the federal cabinet and the National Assembly does not instill much confidence. For example, to cite keeping inflation in single digits as a big achievement is fallacious, to say the least.

Inflation was kept even lower during the PPP regime not known for competence or transparency during its five-year rule. Retiring the circular debt, auctioning 3G and 4G licenses, and securing loans and grants from friendly countries and donors is also being claimed as a mark of success of the government in stabilising the economy.

Admittedly, Dar is working 24/7 with a zeal and fervour previously missing. But where is the beef? The question that needs an urgent answer is: has the engine of growth re-ignited in the past year?

Keeping the rupee down though artificial infusion of capital is fine. But is it a long-term solution to the problem?

The economic roadmap presented to the federal cabinet and the National Assembly does not instill much confidence.

On the flip side it is negatively impacting our exports by making them less competitive. Similarly, come payday for international debt, the rupee could come under severe pressure possibly resulting in a run on it.

A reform agenda is entirely missing from the economic roadmap presented by the finance minister with much fanfare. Unless the economy is restored and deregulated on an institutional level prosperity and stability will remain elusive.

There is a lot of talk from official quarters about foreign investors being bullish about investing in Pakistan. But is it possible without deregulating the economy and rooting out terrorism?

In the presence of travel advisories declaring Pakistan an unsafe destination, and our airports and hotels being protected like fortresses, only the brave will venture to invest here. With the PML-N government obstinately procrastinating to single-mindedly pursue a counter terrorism policy presented by the military, the prospects do not seem good.

It seems to be keener to settle scores with former dictator Pervez Musharraf. Thus creating unnecessary tensions with the military leadership at a crucial time.

The Nawaz government is under no immediate threat of being sent packing. The recent photo op at the Karachi Governor House with the prime minister huddled on a sofa with former president Asif Ali Zardari on one side and the COAS general Raheel Sharif on the other, says it all.

To summon a high level meeting on Karachi in Karachi with the army chief attending and Zardari invited was not only unprecedented but politically a savvy move. It is evident that the PPP is biding its time and is in no mood to upset the apple cart.

The army on the other hand, under Raheel Sharif, is asserting itself while at the same time following the Kayani model and is in no mood to overtly intervene. Nonetheless, judging from history Nawaz Sharif and his advisors have the propensity to commit political hara-kiri. Hence the prime minister and his team need to be mindful about the sensitivities of the military for their own sake and sake of democracy in the country.

Across the border the BJP’s crushing victory has virtually routed the ruling Congress party after a decade. According to analysts few had doubted a BJP victory but no one anticipated it being quite so empathic and unprecedented. According to London’s Guardian’s correspondent Jason Burke: no political group has seen this level of power in India since the 1980s.

Narindera Modi as a prime minister with such a thumping majority has far reaching implications for Pakistan. The new Indian prime minister does not need allies or political compromises to rule. He has the wherewithal to unabashedly pursue his agenda.

Sharif and his foreign policy advisors will soon have to work out a strategy to deal with Modi, whose election plank prominently includes dealing a firm hand to Pakistan. Some of the BJP hardliners had dubbed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a Pakistani agent for ostensibly being soft on its estranged neighbour.

There is a lot of talk from official quarters about foreign investors being bullish about investing in Pakistan. But is it possible without deregulating the economy and rooting out terrorism?

Sharif cannot meet this challenge alone as the military has a pivotal role to play in our India policy. The BJP has many Pakistani bashers amongst its folds. Let us hope that better sense will prevail and Modi, like his predecessor Atal Behari Vajpayee, will extend an olive branch to Islamabad.

The so called Lahore Process, when the Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee visited the Punjab capital in early 1999 on a bus was nipped in the bud by the then COAS General Pervez Musharraf. He effectively sabotaged it by launching the Kargil misadventure.

Sharif claims that he was not taken on board on Kargil. But few believe that he had no knowledge of the harebrained and militarily disastrous scheme.

In this context it unlikely that Modi will give a walkover to Islamabad. He will be cautious while dealing with his Pakistani counterpart.

Demands from Pakistan to reign in the co called non-state actors will gain traction under BJP. Similarly there will be more strident calls to bring the perpetrators of the Bombay carnage to book.

The present COAS does not seem to be impetuous and reckless like Musharraf. Hence a combination of firmness as well caution will have to be followed by Islamabad.

Perhaps economic cooperation with New Delhi and promoting trade ties should be Islamabad’s mantra. At the same time adventurers like Hafiz Saeed and his ilk would need to be reined in.

This is also the time to move in tandem with the military to root out the existential threat in the form of terrorism. Perhaps time has already run out on tweaking the India centric security paradigm. But there is no harm in trying. Better late than never.