At risk of being encircled
Charles M. Schulz was a great cartoonist. His world acclaimed cartoon series of ‘Peanuts’ still remains popular being reprinted again and again. “How can I play baseball when I’m worried about foreign policy?” he asks (The Complete Peanuts, Vol. 6: 1961-1962). Indeed, foreign policy of any country has to be a balancing of many acts, juggling various interests with different desired objectives, many a time at odds with each other. With Pakistan it’s more of walking on a tight rope. The changing geo-political scenario demands a serious formation of a well thought out foreign policy.
On the eve of United States forces exit from next door Afghanistan, Pakistan needs some clear headed thinking to determine its course of relationships in particular with its neighbouring countries. The recent visit of Iranian Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli to Pakistan and PM Nawaz’s subsequent visit to Iran must be seen in the backdrop of its growing cozy relationship with Saudi Arabia. The latter has recently loaned $1.5 billion to Pakistan “to help Islamabad shore up its foreign exchange reserves, meet debt-service obligations and undertake large energy and infrastructure projects.” (Reuters Mar 13, 2014) This was not all. On February 18, 2014, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a $183 million credit agreement. One dealt with the construction of a hydro-power project in Chitral, while the other with the import of urea fertiliser from Saudi Arabia. These overtures are being eyed with great unease by pre-dominantly Shi’a Iran. Particularly as Pakistan decided to support Saudi Arabia in its demand to replace Bashar al Assad’s regime with an interim government in Syria on the same date as the signing of the agreement. Their immediate reaction to signing of the million credit agreement was that on the very same date Iran issued a threat to Pakistan to send forces within its borders should it fail to rescue the five Iranian border guards abducted 10 days prior to these developments. Although it is claimed by a local newspaper that they were kidnapped from Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, adjoining Pakistan.
Iran has increased the numbers of security heads at this border already. According to a report by a local newspaper, “Iran’s police chief has hinted that his country would seal its border with Pakistan any time. “It is very important to ensure security on the eastern border.” (May 5, 2014)
There are a number of thorny issues that will come under consideration during the Prime Minister’s visit to Iran. The gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan is one. In my op-ed published December 24, 2013 I had written, “There could have been many reasons for Pakistan playing coy on the project; or maybe a mix of reasons. First, Pakistan may have dilly dallied owing to the rates at which it would have had to import the gas from Iran even after the project was completed. The rates would have been high. Much higher than the ability of the average domestic consumer to afford. According to a report by a local newspaper, “Iran itself imports gas from Turkmenistan at USD 4/MMBtu while the price at which it would export to Pakistan is an exorbitant figure of USD 14/MMBtu” (Published 2013-11-09). Added to this is the fact that Iran herself imports gas; seasonal increases in the demand in winter makes it difficult for Iran to supply gas to Turkey as per their needs. “On October 1, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh himself raised concern about Iran facing serious gas shortage because of slow progress in raising levels of production from South Pars – the field that is supposed to fill the IP pipeline. If such factors were seriously taken into account, the pipeline agreement would likely have never been signed at the first place.” (Published 2013-11-09)Though Iran and Pakistan have agreed to move ahead on this project during Nawaz Sharif’s visit to Iran, offering words to implement the project without taking any steps to do so indefinitely may well raise temperatures.How does Pakistan deflect imposition of economic sanctions by the western countries particularly US if it decides to go ahead is anybody’s guess?
Iran has increased the numbers of security heads at this border already. According to a report by a local newspaper, “Iran’s police chief has hinted that his country would seal its border with Pakistan any time.
Another issue of burning importance to Iran will be Syria. In my op-ed dated September 03, 2013 titled, ‘Syria and the ‘Greater Iran’ I wrote, “There are the religious-geographic dynamics that cannot be overlooked. Hezbollah and Iran in hands with Alawites of Syria have been aiming at reviving the Greater Iran, keeping in view their own schismatic ideology, the effects of which reflect in the current proxy war in Pakistan. The geographic link formed is Hezbollah on one end, Syria and Iraq forming the center with Iran at the other end converging to solidify a unified religious school of thought. Is the Middle East or South Asia ready for the revival of a Greater Iran?”
Pakistan has to walk a tight rope between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the former pre-dominantly Shi’a and the latter pre -dominantly Sunni. Coming back to Afghanistan; Hamid Karzai paid a visit to Iran in December 2013. The visit bore fruit. Both countries signed a “pact of friendship and cooperation”. This agreement between the countries was not a first in recent times. In 2013 both had earlier entered into a security agreement. In yet another of my pieces I wrote, “According to a report 70 per cent of media in the country today is controlled by Iran. Another report by Reuters says Iran spends $100 million a year in Afghanistan, much of it on media, civil society projects and religious schools; quoting Daud Moradian, a former foreign ministry advisor, who now teaches at the American University in Kabul (Published May 24, 2012). The impact of propaganda and one-sided “truth” are immense… Iran had supported non-Taliban groups in 1990s and may revert to doing so yet again. To accept a predominantly Sunni regime in the face of Taliban in power may result in a proxy war, supporting the Afghanistan’s Hazara populace that is mostly Shi’a. Iran’s pursuance of its schismatic policy in Afghanistan will continue to provoke divisions along the fault lines in Afghan society” (Published October 08, 2013).
Iran is not the only country interested in developing friendlier relations with Afghanistan. India too has invested heavily in Afghanistan. “India has donated or helped to build electrical power plants, health facilities for children and amputees, 400 buses and 200 minibuses, and a fleet of aircraft for Ariana Afghan Airlines. India has also been involved in constructing power lines, digging wells, running sanitation projects and using solar energy to light up villages, while Indian telecommunications personnel have built digitised telecommunications networks in 11 provinces. One thousand Afghan students a year have been offered scholarships to Indian universities. India has also played a key role in the construction of a new Afghan parliament in Kabul at a cost of $25 million.”(William Dalrymple: a Brookings Essay titled; A Deadly Triangle: Afghanistan, Pakistan & India)
India has also invested heavily in the Ayni Air Base also known as the ‘Gissar Air Base’ placed 10km west of the capital of Tajikistan-Dushanbe. Not only this; India also has a foothold on the Farkhor Air Base; a military air base. This strategic base is located near the town of Farkhor in Tajikistan. This is roughly 130 kilometers south east of the capital Dushanbe. Aircrafts that take off from Farkhor, need literally minutes to be in Pakistan air space. I had written earlier, “These combined steps places India in a strong position for the ‘new’ great game that is emerging with a changed political landscape in Afghanistan. Islamabad fears; and for good reason that an India and Tajikistan nexus will lead to an infiltration via Afghanistan, using an unprotected western flank that will “encircle” Pakistan, cutting off oxygen. What Pakistan must do; is to redraw its foreign policy.”
In this scenario, Pakistan needs to marry together short and long term balanced and well thought out foreign policy. Pakistan must rise to the occasion.
it's not unusual with present Rulers,Pakistan needs A leader with Diplomatic Acumen
PAKISTAN walks the tight rope coz it didn't walk the Right rope.
What was our Foreign office doing all these years?
dear yasmeen your thought provoking article needs reading at least twice before offering any comments GOD bless you.sincerely yours grk
Tight Rope phase is over. Now siding and not sliding is the answer. We need astute diplomacy which we lack. Pity me
Reality-Pak & Iran’s strategic/eco interests clash & Iran wud pursue her interest. For us,maintaining good relations a compulsion
It is more like a noose around it's neck!
With pumpkin head leading pak how will there be a foreign policy ?
Good analysis. But Pakistan has no mandarins in Foreign Office or the present government who can think long term and with clarity. At this critical juncture where epoch re-alignments are going to take place in and around our region we have people at the helm who could not even teach a grade three class basic geography.
Very sound piece!
ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT. THEY SHOULD MAKE YOU A GENERAL TO SERVE IN GHQ. OR U SHOULD GO AND LECTURE IN NDC AND STAFF COLLEGES.
does India really need a Tajikistan base to fight Pak or is it, it's broader strategic need. Pak's strategy shld b 2 play 4 now
A very insightful foreign policy article, with deep ramifications for Pakistan if not handled with finesse and maturity. However, the current administration is out of its depth to walk this tight rope, it's too hidebound to a particular school of thought and too busy setting up or pondering mega projects to give foreign policy an international complexion.
Regards,
Ardeshir.
Off course, I agree Pakistan needs to better engage with the neighbors and improve its economic and political conditions. And much more to stamp the extremists who kill people in Pakistan more than anywhere else. India definitely has a strategic interest in Afghanistan , no doubt. But seriously, India has much better things to do than infiltrate into a country which is looking to find a footing and coping with terrible economic and safety concerns. There can be nothing more beneficial than a strong Indo-Pak economic-social relation, but sadly the number of haters on both sides are way too many to let sense prevail.
Regards,
A friend from the other side.
I wonder why our leadership does not keep national interests supreme when Iran is importing gas herself on lower rates and ready to export us on more than triple rates. Iran has not been able to export required quota to her neighbor Turkey then why Pakistan is hell bent to go for Iranian gas? Why our media is not highlighting this factor which has been highlighted by the author. No doubt we have clear headed duo of special advisors instead of a permanent foreign minister and they are there just to balance the see saw game of our rulers to keep both Saudi and Iran happy which financially may hurt us very badly. Well Done Madame for producing a splendid research paper.
Ajmal
Shahbaz Sharif did not go to Iran. I wonder if we should take serious note of this visit.
When India exploded its nuclear device, they started referring to 1,000 years of Muslim occupation. India, or Indians will do, what they have always done, marginalize us economically. Before 1947, we tried at least twice to have one independent India, Quit India, but the Hindu Binya, reduced us to being peons, clerks and bus drivers, like they do to Sikhs, wherever they can get a chance, so we said, Quit and Divide India. I visited Bengala Desh. Went to the place, where Pakistan Army surrendered, has sentimental value for me. They were complaining, that China and India had destroyed their small industry, even a pencil not made in BD was cheaper. I did ask them about Punjabi children. They could not show me any. I think our confusion is, that we have bought the idea of nation-state, whereas people like to live in their cultural clusters, that are extensions of families, that turn into tribes. If you go by road, after Attock Bridge, until Iran boarder, it looks like one country, one kind of chappati, bigger shalwar, being more particular about prayers, and of courses carrying of weapons, as if an infantry unit was on a mission.
I have a question. What will India do, if Pakistan has no atom bomb and no armed forces? Will India conquer Pakistan and subjugate it as a slave nation or annex Pakistan as its own territory? While looking for an answer, we can see the fate of Bangladesh.
I think India will do no such thing and if we make changes in our thinking, we can keep in tact like BD. We should concentrate on our industry, agriculture and good governance and try to bring cultural changes in our society and try to better the quality of life of our countrymen.
Brilliant! Article providing great insight on Pak's foreign policy & quagmire in which r cty is in-Indeed walking on a tight rope.
Why can't our clear headed duo of foreign advisors tell us inside facts of Iranian gas pipeline like @yasmeen_9
By the way I traveled by bus from Attock to Peshawar, to Kabul. to Harat, Mashed, and Tehran all by bus in 1977.
Yasmeen you aced it again. Great expose.
Best Regards,
MASROOR UL HASSAN
A foreign policy based upon dictates from abroad will always keep Pakistan walking a tight rope. What Pakistan needs is a totally non aligned foreign policy which does not side with or against any country in her disputes with other countries, maintains good friendly relations with every country independent of own and heir relations with other countries, respects others' national interests without compromising own.
Okay Ladies n Gentlemen ,very good points brought out and discussed, I remembered and still feel anger on the remarks made by then some Indian minister (During BJP Rule) that Oil setting in Baku, Azerbaijan belongs to India in one of the press briefing, See the fore sight-ness of the Indian's leadership how claiming natural resources as their not a neighbored not even next but next to next(Pakistan than Iran and than Azerbaijan) ,, And our F O and even all Bureaucrats were made self centered By the Bhutto and his Party as a result of making Political Postings and Promotions, It seems we had made snakes instead of our Government servants,,, blinds and deaf ,,rather duffers?, Coming to the the cheapest source of solar power,, There was a time when UNO made funds available to Pakistan in order to have the largest Solar Energy Research Centre in Asia. A PhD Doctor (Sadiq or Ismail?) of Islamabad was given the assignment to establishe this Centre in Islamabad and Doctor Saheb did good work with developing a solar penal worth of $100 in International Market values making it in his Centre with a cost of just in Pak Rupees,2-5 , can you all IMMAGINE what was out come of DOCTOR's hard work ???A team with a female member as it's head (She being one of non Muslim declared in Pakistan) from North America also acted very effectively. And resulted, closer of the project in Islamabad ,Doctor was declared Mental Patient and was even deprived of his pension ,and like one of old mercerized Benz Now TATA MOTORS Like or Islamabad water running Car episode like,,,This all happened right in Islamabad and Daily JANG did make its main Headings on this case ,year may be some 1991-5,, Naveed Tajamal sir,please dig out that DOCTOR's where about and let your readers know his result,,,HUM SUB BQOUL late Muhammad Saeed Rangilla Saheb PURPOHUNJON oor purphouson ki Qoum hain,,,)(افیونچی)
Very informative and specially relevant today
Pakistan's Foreign Policy in all international issues have been very submissive… Is it due to too much dependency on US-Saudi Alliance… Is it due to Domestic Issues that could not be resolved since it's inception in 1947 or Is it because there is a God ???
Hope, the outcome of PM’s visit to Iran is good. We need better relations with Iran, and ofcourse the gas!
Problem is we just go with the tide.if the facts highlighted are taken into consideration,there is no point to enter in this complication.
Why this bashing of Iran and Iranian and if one reads between the lines of your article the bashing of the Shias is harder! I wonder what the Iranians did to be rubbed so badly. If the production is low at the moment at Pars it will go up by the time the pipeline is completed.We do not have to give up in order to get solar energy from the opponents of Iran .
She is an amazing writer…
Jump out of sinking Saudi ship and have broad-base relations…
Good points. We need aggressive policies in our own interest–not reactive or at someones behest
ery true. we need to be pro-active rather than reactive. 'Pakistan First' policy (not the slogan used by Musharraf but real interests of pakistan must take priority).
Our Afghan policy is totally confused. Both Iran and India support the Northern Alliance. Pushtoon heartland was historically our natural ally, but we have done everything in the book to ruin what remains of the relationship. Gas supply from Iran should automatically invoke a 40% discount as compared to the International benchmarks. The deal must renegotiated
Religious Split in a Christine Country – Ukraine.
Yasmeen; It is not only Muslims who had their split into Shia and Sunni and further split into Alavies Zaidies and Asnaa Ashries in Shias and Bareilvies and Deobandies among sunnies but in Christine Country like Ukraine religious split and tensions are happening. Split between Old Christine sectarian fault lines too of Greek Orthodox and Catholics and Protestants. Since no Western Country needs or can afford s this kind of division this day and age why should such type of division should occur in any of the Muslim Country in this Hi Tech age and period.. Religious tensions of Ukraine is an eye opener for various religious communities – particularly Shias and Sunnies – in Pakistan and other Muslim world, and be as an example of the Islam being used, by the Politicians and International vested interest parties in dividing the ummah and Pakistan / Muslim Countries at large.As it is dividing Ukrainians rather than uniting them. As said " the situation with religious communities in Ukraine some what reflects the division with in the Ukrainian Nation" same would go true with Pakistan and the Muslim World at large and existing Muslim Communities with in them.. Haven't Muslims learnt from the past ?
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